‘Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics’
Nigeria is the world’s poverty capital. Most Nigerians live on less than $2 a day. Nigeria’s economy is powered by only 4,000MW of power. Even Republic of Benin has better road infrastructure than Nigeria. Over 70 percent of Nigerians are unemployed. Nigeria has a housing deficit of 28 million. Some 16 million Nigerian children are out of school. The 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria was written by the military. Unless we ditch the 1999 Constitution and write a new one, Nigeria will never develop. Governors run to Abuja every month to share federation allocation. Nigerian president is the most powerful in the world. Etcetera etcetera and so on and so on.
If you have ever held any of these notions, or reinforced them without fact-checking, Mr Babatunde Raji Fashola, former governor of Lagos state, has a message for you: take a chill pill. That is not exactly how he puts it in his book, ‘Nigerian Public Discourse: The Interplay of Empirical Evidence and Hyperbole’, which will be presented on February 8, 2024 in Lagos. His underpinning arguments are: one, some collective assumptions about the development indices of Nigeria are not based on verifiable facts; two, policy decisions must not be founded on assumptions, suppositions or facts of dubious origins. A wrong diagnosis of an ailment will lead to a wrong prescription and treatment.
Fashola — who was minister of power, works and housing from 2015 to 2019 and thereafter minister of works and housing for four years — keeps to a theme that cautions public analysts, social commentators and public servants on the assertions they make while discussing the state of the nation. Some pronouncements are disseminated with such “unwavering conviction” that it becomes hard to summon the courage to critically examine their veracity without appearing either naïve or contrarian, he notes, warning that “a mere conjecture or personal opinion, expressed with authority on a national platform, assumes the guise of an empirical principle which cannot be disputed”.
For a start, anytime you say most Nigerians are living on less than $2 a day and use it as a measurement of the poverty incidence, Fashola would want you to apply the brake. He famously challenged the $1/day measurement and is still not satisfied despite the doubling of the figure. His explanation may be controversial but it is profound, nonetheless. To be clear, he is not questioning the incidence of poverty in Nigeria, but he is unsure of the reliability of the data being used to declare Nigeria as the “poverty capital of the world”. Politically, this dubious distinction has been a potent campaign tool in the hands of opposition parties, which is to be expected in election seasons.
There are two issues here, as pointed out by Fashola. The first is that the World Poverty Clock used data from 2013 and its forecast based on that to arrive at the conclusion that Nigeria was the poverty capital, effectively discounting economic interventions that took place years before the report was written. The report also used the General Household Survey of 2012/2013 and not the Harmonised Living Standards Survey. Using dollar as a measurement without considering the purchasing power parity is also questioned by Fashola, who argues that what one dollar can buy in Nigeria is more than what it can buy in, for instance, the US. He uses the price of a bottle of Coke as a simple example.
The second issue from this is that the poverty data “presents a stark disconnection with the true identity of the Nigerian populace” by a narrow interpretation of “indigenous economics” — in Fashola’s words. The data neglects people’s disposable income. Fashola calls this “cultural economic relativity” which he says Western economists may not understand. The extended family system in Africa is so potent that “it could assist family members to offset rent, school fees, medical bills, sponsor children in school, and other expenses”. He quotes a study on Informal Safety Net which shows how people regularly receive helps ranging from N1,000 to N500,000 from family members.
Fashola’s proposition here is that these are also incomes, howsoever defined, but the poverty data does not countenance them and is confined to what is formally earned by the average Nigerian. He proposes a comprehensive study within the context of the African social support system for a more accurate assessment of poverty. He insists that efforts to reduce poverty in Nigeria by all tiers of government are not insignificant as evident in investments in transport, education, water, health and related