ECOWAS and the Three Rebels
On Sunday, the coup leaders in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso announced the withdrawal of their countries from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). In a joint statement, the three military heads of states said it was a “sovereign decision” to leave ECOWAS “without delay,” because of the “inhumane” sanctions imposed against their countries. They also accused ECOWAS of having “moved away from the ideals of its founding fathers and Pan-Africanism”; claiming that the bloc is now “under the influence of foreign powers.” ECOWAS, according to the military leaders, “notably failed to assist these states in their existential fight against terrorism and insecurity.”
First, we must understand the desperation that pushed the trio of Captain Ibrahim Traore, General Abdourahmane Tchiani and Colonel Assimi Goita to take the action they did. Their three landlocked countries have been under tremendous domestic pressure since being suspended from ECOWAS: Mali in 2020, Burkina Faso in 2022 and Niger last July. The military rulers signed a defence pact, Alliance of Sahel States founded on the Mafia code of ‘one for all and all for one’ and severed military and cooperation ties with France, their former colonial power. They have now turned to Russia, long seeking a foothold on the continent.
Before I deal with the Russian angle, let me state that this is a problem for us in Nigeria only to the extent that we are seen as leader of the sub-region. President Bola Tinubu is also the current ECOWAS Chairman. Yes, there is a lot to say about a whimsical approach to serious problems becoming emblematic of the current Tinubu administration. And I am aware of the enormous economic and security challenges that plague our country. But Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, three countries that collectively account for 8% of the $702 billion ECOWAS Gross Domestic Product (GDP), are not being helped by their military adventurers on this issue.
Not many people remember but ECOWAS was founded by 16 members comprising former British, French, and Portuguese colonies within the subregion. In 2000, Mauritania withdrew its membership in preference for the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) which it had joined, even when there was nothing stopping the country from belonging to two regional bodies. It did not take long before Mauritanians begun expressing regrets. Yahya Ould Ahmed Waghef, a former Prime Minister (2008-2009), has deemed his country’s withdrawal from ECOWAS ‘a big mistake.’ Of the 54 African countries, according to Waghef, 27 are members of two regional groupings, 18 belong to three groupings and one country is a member of four groupings hence “we have the right to belong simultaneously to two sub-regional organizations (ECOWAS and AMU).” With that opportunity lost, Mauritania is back today in ECOWAS but as an associate member.
Meanwhile, the main ECOWAS challenge for Nigeria is in Niger where President Tinubu is walking a tightrope. Last November, the Northern Senators Forum (NSF) issued a communique indicating quite clearly that there is no consensus in Nigeria as to how to deal with the Niger coup. “The Northern Senators Forum asks ECOWAS to lift restrictions on Niger Republic in the interest of business at
our border communities. It is important that Nigeriens should not suffer as a result of coup in their country just as we are seeing what is happening in Gaza,” said NSF Chairman, Abdul Ningi, who read the statement after their meeting. “We call on Niger and Nigeria that we remain brothers, we remain partners and we remain Africans.”
There are other complexities and sensitivities the president must understand. The Nigeria-Niger border is 1,608 kilometres long and traverses seven states: Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Jigawa, Yobe, Katsina and Borno. People in these states engage in open trade across borders and their livelihood is dependent on transactions that are now hampered. Tinubu’s immediate predecessor, President Muhammadu Buhari, we must also remember, admitted openly that Niger is a second home for him. So, already there is domestic pressure that relations be normalised with Niger. General Abdourahmane Tchiani understands these dynamics strengthen his hand and perhaps explains why he is playing hard ball. That’s also why President Tinubu (and by implication, the ECOWAS he chairs) cannot afford to be rigid. At some point, there will have to be a compromise. And whatever goes for Niger must go for Mali and Burkina Faso.
Now to the Russian angle. In an interview with ARISE NEWS on Monday, former Minister for Foreign Affairs, Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, argued that Russia may be “emboldening these three countries to break up ECOWAS as part of the attempt to weaken what one will call the western influence in this part of the world.” Yet, according to Akinyemi, “Russia has not shown that it has the capability to help these three countries to combat the jihadists, the Tuaregs, the ISIS who are running wild in the Sahel.” To the respected diplomat, Nigeria and the regional bloc now contend with a crisis, essentially “because these three countries, in terms of landmass, that’s about half of ECOWAS. So, we’re not dealing with just a little hiccup on our hands.”
Regarding allegations by the three countries that ECOWAS is being teleguided by foreign powers, Akinyemi said it was clear what they mean. “You know the power that they are referring to, and presumably, the fact that our president is in France at the moment kind of reinforces this fear in their minds that the ECOWAS policies are actually French policies,” said Akinyemi. “We’re going to need some clever steps, diplomatically on this matter, and I think that ECOWAS needs some fast thinking to make sure that this situation does not get out of hand.”
I am aware that Russia is investing considerable resources (mostly non-financial apart from wheat donations) to gain a stronger foothold in a number of African countries. Russia has been deploying two vehicles: Military through the Wagner mercenary group and media propaganda, especially against France. In practically all the French speaking countries on the continent, local social media influencers are being contracted to spread pro-Russia (and anti-France) propaganda. “I manage the cyberwar, the media war… and (the late Wagner leader, Yevgeny) Prigozhin conducts military activities,” Luc Michel, who heads the media machine told BBC two years ago. “I think that Russia must replace the French in all of Africa.” So, obviously, there is no altruism in the Russian intervention in these countries.
After almost 50 years, ECOWAS has become part of the political and economic lifeblood of the subregion. To that extent, Nigeria’s very strategic importance and political stability are tied to the survival of the regional bloc. The leadership role we play makes the threat to its existence a serious matter. Therefore, the challenge of the moment requires deft diplomatic leadership that is inclusive and multicultural. That is the best way to neutralize the departure of France from the affected countries. As for the Russian meddlesomeness, it can be dealt with as part of the global anti-authoritarian drive. That of course presupposes strengthening our democracy at home and working for the peace and prosperity of our people.