EXCHANGE RATE UNIFICATION: PRESIDENT TINUBU POISONED CHALICE (I)
funds are now allocated to state governments and the governors just party. This government should know that the huge increase in funds available to state governments via the monthly statutory allocation mechanism ends up in the pocket of state governors. As yet, there is no mechanism to monitor the governors to prevent this unending calamity. The experience of bankers is that at the end of the month, the black market for dollars is unusually busy. The demand for US dollars escalates and it it has been so for decades. Working with the accountant-general of the state, the governors take out the security vote and a sizeable portion of the allocation for the state through any bureau de change (BDC) of choice and their foreign account is updated. That is why most governors travel lout at the beginning of the month to confirm the deposits that have been credited to their accounts. The recent increase in allocation to states has increased the quantity of funds stolen by state governors via this channel. It was a mistake for president Tinubu to have moved much of the funds accruing from the subsidy withdrawal and the devaluation into the pool of funds for monthly allocation. The Tinubu government should have used the opportunity to set up an implementation agency named the presidential infrastructure task force to implement choice programmes in emergency road construction and rehabilitation, health and educational intervention, water supply, low income housing projects and social structures that are lacking in the country. Unfortunately, the current increased statutory allocation to state governments has increased executive greed and has worsened our collective poverty. It this agency is established the black market will be starved of funds and the exchange rate will improve very quickly in 60 days. The expectation is that the new agency will not loot this fund as an accounting and control system can be designed to stem excessive leakages. It is recommended that the government should reflect on this proposal.
If ever there were good reasons for keeping Mele Kyari, in office as NNPCL GMD, since May 29, 2023, those reasons must be long gone. Crude oil theft rose to the level of a national embarrassment under his management. The country cannot even produce to meet the OPEC allocated quota and therefore cannot earn enough foreign exchange to give strength to the economy. Malam Kyari’s top three management levels in the NNPCL should be sacked today and a new executive body be reconstituted. There had always been corruption in the NNPC but what has now metamorphosed into massive crude oil theft is an existential threat confronting Nigeria. The recent decision by the federal government directing NNPCL to ask crude oil buyers to pay the proceeds of crude oil sales directly into the designated account in CBN is a step in the right direction. It will help solve a lingering problem whether crude oil is being physically stolen to the extent feared or whether the expected crude oil sale is made but the proceeds paid into two accounts - 30% into the federal government account under NNPC and 70% paid into the cabal’s account. The day of reckoning Is almost here. While implementing the personnel and control changes in the NNPCL, government must begin to search for international business espionage experts who had retired from the American FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) as contract employees of government to oversee the determined efforts to put a stop to the theft of crude oil. These experts have received a special training that the federal government will find useful. The current half-hearted efforts to halt crude oil theft by releasing in the night, vessels caught with stolen crude oil in the day, and harassing locals with 20 drums of crude oil being used for local refining business will never help this situation. We are currently adopting a face-saving measure devoid of effectiveness. It is laughable and hypocritical. A crude oil production figure of 1.5mbpd, out of an OPEC quota of approximately 2.3mbpd is an insult on the Nigerian reformist president and a vindication of the need to immediately relieve Malam Mele Kyari of his undeserved current position. If Nigeria begins to meet its current OPEC quota, the dramatic effect of the currently mortgaged crude oil stock on the nation’s earnings will be obviated. There are too many dirty tricks in the channels of the management of NNPCL.
The general security problem in Nigeria has to be addressed. The armed forces, police, civil defence officials and the Nigerian hunters/forest guards association are highly commended for the steps taken so far to address the national security meltdown. The time for the commencement of the state police system has come. The national assembly members must be forced to authorise the state police system. The insecurity of today is way beyond the capacity of our centralised federal policing system. The federal governement also requires the services of foreign mercenaries to work side-by-side with our local security forces and the armed forces to eliminate the resistant bandits and criminals in Kaduna, Zamfara, Plateau, Benue, Taraba, Niger, Imo, Anambra, and in the forests of the western states. A kidnapping and terrorist tribunal should be established and a trial period of six months be set down as the period of arrest, trial and conviction or discharge for terrorists, bandits, killer herdsmen and mass murderers. The death penalty without the option of fine or imprisonment must be the punishment. In the 1970s the death penalty and public execution by firing squad for convicted armed robbers was able to tame the crime of armed robbery. This time death penalty, by hanging or electric chair, should await convicted bandits, killer-herdsmen, killer cattle rustlers, boko haram terrerorists and cross border killers along the fringes of northern Nigerian borders and other such killers in Nigeria. The execution of convicts must be carried out within 90 days of conviction and whatever appeals that may arise must be determined within the 180 days deadline. A drastic ailment requires a drastic cure. The question of rehabilitating boko haram convicts as repentant offenders and absorbing them into the Nigerian armed forces and the police force is a detestable practice and an effort to undermine the sovereignty of Nigeria.
If the security situation improves national food production efforts will be boosted. Farmers can go back to the farms and herdsmen will no longer be emboldened to walk their herds of cattle over huge farmlands wrecking pain and destruction on hundreds of millions of naira private investments. In parallel with this effort, the much discussed system of ranching in selected states of the federation should commence. Indeed the federal government can build experimental ranches in five northern states as an example for others to follow. The annual value of the Nigerian cattle economy runs into tens of billions of dollars. With a secured land access to farm lands, produce buyers can go freely into the forests and farms to purchase palm kernel, rubber, cotton, grains, ginger, cocoa, rubber and others and process for export. The commodity boards can now return and export business will be promoted. It is also important for the Nigerian federal ministry of finance using the NEXIM Bank as its channel to seek an export stimulation loan from the African Development Bank (ADB). Foreign exchange earnings from exports will help the foreign exchange market and gradually reduce the current market volatility. The commodity boards of those past years helped in creating the modern Nigerian state. The cocoa board in Ibadan, Palm produce board in Calabar, groundnut board in Kano, Cotton board in Funtua and Rubber board in Iyanomo were the vehicles for Nigerian prosperity before and during the crude oil years of glory. Their subsequent sale and destruction has had an unsavoury effect on the Nigerian agricultural sector and our foreign exchange earnings. Similarly, the ability of the terrorists to prevent federal access to mining sites in this country is preposterous. The action of the federal government in all these areas has been tepid. There has been no sufficiently effective action in any positive direction since May 29, 2023. Even the much touted efforts in the Nigerian mining sector is held captive.
The federal government is advised to immediately implement a measure for both the federal and state governments to open up their ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) for mass recruitment of qualified personnel. The administration of President Ibrahim Babangida achieved a feat in 1986/87 when he threw open the doors of government for the mass recruitment of qualified graduates in the country. The reason was that the SAP had brought untold hardship to Nigerians at the time and he saw the need to bring succour and relief into Nigerian homes. President Tinubu is at a similar period in his presidency. In the federal and state state civil service and in the MDAs, hundreds of thousands of vacancies abound. These vacancies have developed from staff death, retirement, resignations, ill-health, dismissals, and the flight to economic safety called the “JAPA” phenomenon. On this note the infamous Oronsaye report should be shredded because it is not only outdated, it sought to achieve no useful purpose from the very beginning. An emergency meeting of the national economic council should hold and the federal government and all state governors and the FCT should be mandated to take an inventory of vacancies existing in their public service. A directive should then go from the presidency for these vacancies to be filled within 90 days. Furthermore, in all government primary and secondary schools with an appalling student/ teacher ratio, teachers should be immediately recruited to fill the vacancies. Jobs should be created to enable President Tinubu to neutralise this poisoned chalice. Let us act before it is too late (Part 2 follows on new jobs and exchange rate revaluation strategy).