Tinubuplomacy and Current International Developments: Continental Integration, QuoVadis?
Current developments are international only to the extent that they are perceived to be external toone’sowncountry.Inotherwords,whatever happens outside of the national boundaries of a country is foreign or external or international. Put differently, what is considered to be domestic here in Nigeria is necessarily viewed as external in foreign countries. Still explained further, Nigeria is a foreign country to Senegal as Senegal is also a foreign country to Nigerians. Consequently, an international current development is both a domestic and an international act at the same time. The determinantofwhatmakesadevelopmentinternationalordomestic is the location of perception or determination.
In this regard, how does the Tinubu administration respond to the current developments in, and outside, of Nigeria? There are the many questions of international migration and refugees; internationalclimatechangeandenvironmentalpollution;renewal of recidivist inter-state international conflicts; democratisation of the United Nations system, enlargement of the UN Security Council, and the challenge of right of veto power; politics of nuclear non-proliferation; the unbelievably true Israelo-Hamas genocide; unending pandemics and the challenge of global health; deepening opposition to Westernisation in the conduct and management of international affairs; increasing disregard for human rights; policies of duplicity in the management of international questions; establishment of new international organisations as a counter-weight to the United Nations, such as the BRICS to which severalcountriesareshowingkeeninterest;internationalterrorism; unending threats to national territorial sovereignty; increasing calls for self-determination in several countries, and increasing gap between the rich and the poor, coupled with denial of justice and conscious impoverishment through foreign exploitation of natural resources of the developing countries. It is necessary to provide an exegesis of some of these developments in the context of Tinubuplomacy and challenges for Africa’s continental integration and future.
Current International Developments
Many of the current international developments have serious implications for Nigeria’s foreign policy. There is the ongoing Israeli-Palestinianconflict.Onefundamentalissueisthatofrecognition and position taking. Saudi Arabia reportedly made it clear to the United States that ‘there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian State is recognised on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital’ (The Nation, Thursday, February 8, 2024, p.3). Two issues are involved here. This position is consistent with the popular international quest for a 2-State approach to the conflict. The problem, however, is the non-precision of where the borders begin and stop. Saudi Arabia, like many other Arab states, wants a return to the pre-6 Day War of 1967.
The problem again is that Nigeria is sharply divided over the conflict. The Nigerian Muslims generally tend towards the Arab Palestinians while the Nigerian Christians generally support the Israelis. The implication of the Israelo-Palestinian conflict is its potential to further the divide between the Muslims and Christians in Nigeria on the matter. History has shown that Nigeria has generally expressed sympathy for the Palestinians. It should be recalled that Nigeria allowed the Palestinians to open an Office in Lagos before the capital was moved on 12 December 1991 to Abuja.
Similarly, Nigeria not only supported Egypt in its fight against Israel, but also, in solidarity with Egypt, strained diplomatic ties with Israel. The pertinent question is this: were Nigeria’s policy positions consistent with Nigeria’s national interest? Nigeria’s non-alignmentpolicyhasmadeitclearthatNigeria’sforeignpolicy attitude shall be defined and determined by Nigeria’s national interest. In other words, what really is Nigeria’s policy stand on the conflict beyond simply supporting the 2-State suggestion? Israel has repeatedly shown non-preparedness to accept the option. Israel has said that it would wipe out the entire Hamas and has actually been doing just that. What does Nigeria’s national interest dictate in this case?
A second but related development is the issue of recognition of Israel raised by Saudi Arabia. The mere fact that Nigeria has a diplomatic mission in Israel clearly suggests that recognition is a non-issue for Nigeria. But has Nigeria recognised the State of Palestine? The answer can be yes as the Palestinian National Authority has a representation office in Abuja. There is nothing to suggest that Nigeria and the State of Palestine have exchanged diplomatic missions in its true sense of diplomatic accreditations. If this is so, why should it be so in light of the country’s foreign policy of non-alignment?
Athird international development is the signing of the pact of l’Alliance des Etats du Sahel,AES (Alliance of Sahel States,ASS) by BurkinaFaso,Mali,andNigeron16September,2023.Theagreement has the potential to be more destructive than progressive in the region and the whole of Africa. This is because there is nothing that can be easily done to remove the military juntas currently in power for two reasons: they have actually consolidated their power; they enjoy the active support of their people, they also enjoy the backing of some powerful big powers like Russia, and more importantly, their military forces also support them.
It was because of the increasing French military presence in Niger Republic that prompted the ‘Nigerien military backing the coupledbyGeneralAbdourahmaneTchiani’againstthePresident Bazoum administration, Professor Westcott of the University of London further argued. This simply means that any battle to be carried out and any diplomatic engagement to be envisaged must be done at the three levels of the military junta in power, the military institution backing the government, as well as the people also serving as the democratic backbone of the military junta and without ignoring the foreign policy interests of Russia and its allies.
Another international development that is at par with the issue of unconstitutional change of government in Africa is the postponement of elections by President Macky Sall in Senegal. Many public observers consider the postponement as illegal and different arguments and insinuations have been raised to rationalise the postponement. The argument of Femi Falana, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, is particularly pertinent. As he put it, ‘by arbitrarily postponing the elections, Mr Sall has clearly shown his reluctance to implement and uphold the constitution of Senegal and democratic and rule of law principles, something to which the ECOWAS is expressly committed.’
More important, he recalled the many legal provisions that the Senegalese president, Macky Sall, has violated by his arbitrary postponement: Article 2(1) and (2) of the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance, Article 3(h) of the African Union’sConstitutiveAct,andArticles13(1)and20(1)oftheAfrican Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights. Based on these rules of law, the very patriotic human rights activist, Femi Falana, has suggested that ‘the ECOWAS leaders should consider imposing targeted sanctions including travel bans, asset freezes, and other targeted sanctions on Mr. Sall and officials of his government responsible for serious violations of the democratic rights of the peopleofSenegal(videThisDay,Thursday,February08,2024,p.11).
TakingsanctionarymeasuresonthebasisofECOWASandAfrican Union’s protocols is a very welcome development. However, it is important to first investigate the environmental conditionings of the alleged arbitrary postponement: Some opposition members reportedly called for postponement. Some of the presidential candidates were not listed on the balloting papers for various indictments but are also protesting. In fact, in-spite of the fisticuffs in the Senegalese National Assembly, 105 members of the 165 Assembly Members voted in support of the postponement until December 2024, rather than holding it on 25 February, 2024. It is better for the ECOWAS to wade into the misunderstanding first before taking sanctions. This is necessary because the issue of liberal democracy truly needs to be given a second look as suggested by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. Even if President Sall had reportedly dropped his presidential ambition in July 2023 and has been ‘manipulating the democratic process to install his surrogate, there is no disputing the fact that ‘the postponement of the election is a constitutional coup, and a major threat to the rule of law and constitutional government not only in Senegal but also across the sub-region…’ to borrow the words of Femi Falana.
However, the ECOWAS must first learn to make haste slowly in applyingitsrulesandregulationswhenevermattersofinterference and intervention in the affairs, domestic and international, of its MemberStates.Inotherwords,lessonsmustbelearntfromthepolicy of non-acceptance of unconstitutional change of government. This cannot but be so because the policy of unconstitutional change of governmentdoesnotreflectthedynamicsofcoup-makinginAfrica of today. When the policy of non-acceptance of unconstitutional change of government was adopted, military coups d’état were the target. In theAfrica of today, there are three types of coup d’état: military coups or coups by soldiers, people-initiated or supported coups, and constitutional coups. ECOWAS policy only envisaged military coups and not the two others. The fundamental question therefore is to ask who the African Union or the ECOWAS is seeking to protect with the policy of unconstitutional change of government. If an elected government is not governing well and the people that are governed are complaining to no avail, and by so doing, they support coup-making, who is to blame in this case?
Some observers have it that the electorate should wait until the time of re-election to vote the non-performing government out. Again, what do we do about winning elections by rigging of the elections?Whataboutthemanipulationoftheconstitutioninorder to prolong the stay in power? When is the people’s power really democratic? Is the buying of votes a reflection of true intention of commitment to the candidate coercively voted for? There is the need for a greater caution in first sanctioning.
The ECOWAS Mediation and Security Council, chaired by Nigeria’s Foreign Minister, Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, is currently making efforts to pacify the three annoyed Members. However, the arguments advanced to pacify them are not strong enough. The appeal is not different from a court ruling threatening to convict a suicide bomber to death. A suicide bomber already left his home to go and die. So such a court ruling is not a bid deal. Warning the three countries of awaiting hardship is only prolonging and deepening the dispute. The military juntas in the three countries enjoy popular support. The people are already suffering considerable hardship from the various ECOWAS sanctions. ECOWAS should first appeal to the sentiments of the people. As reported in a story by Reuters and published in the CNN World at 11.49 am Est on Friday February 9, 2024, Ambassador Yusuf Tuggar reportedly said the military juntas’ withdrawal from the ECOWAS ‘would bring more hardship and will do more harm to the common citizens of those three countries.’ The Foreign Minister not only gave the rationale for continuing ‘to urge those three countries to remain’ but also why the ‘ECOWAS is going to redouble its efforts towards diplomacy, towards dialogue, towards reconciliation.’ This is good but not enough. ECOWAS should remove its toga of supranational pride, engage in citizen diplomacy, apologise, and even go to the extent of initiating talks with Mauritania to come back home. This is necessary in revisiting the question of unconstitutional change of government thereafter. Total reunification is the way forward and Tinubuplomacy should be more concerned with it
Continental Integration, Quo Vadis?
There are the domestic and international threats to regional and continental integration in Africa with the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger from the ECOWAS. When Mauritania gave notice of its withdrawal from the ECOWAS in December 1999, the withdrawal, which took effect from December 2000, was not taken as a big deal. It was only one country out of sixteen that opted to withdraw. With three countries deciding in 2023 to withdraw at the same time from the ECOWAS, the withdrawal is really a big deal this time as the cardinal objective of the founding of the Organisation of African Unity and its transformation into theAfrican Union is now seriously threatened in an unprecedented manner.