Global oil demand to increase 6.5% in 2021, says OPEC

Vienna, Austria – Global crude oil demand is expected to increase by 6.56 per cent or 5.9mn barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to an average of 95.91mn bpd, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly report.

‘The US economy is anticipated to recover relatively well this year, supported by the availability of viable vaccines in combination with well-targeted stimulus measures, which in turn will support oil demand going forward,’ the report said.

Global oil demand in 2020, however, is estimated to have contracted by 9.75mn bpd, or 9.8 per cent, to reach 90mn bpd, according to the OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report.

In Europe, 2021 projections assume a healthy recovery in economic activities. ‘Accordingly, oil demand is anticipated to rise steadily this year supported primarily by transportation and industrial fuels.’

In OECD Asia Pacific countries, it said oil demand is projected to grow for the first time in seven years but will remain below 2019 levels. ‘A return of some of the consumption lost in 2020 in addition to recovering economic activities are projected to support a demand increase in 2021… Demand growth is projected to be driven by China, followed by India and Other Asia.’

Demand for OPEC crude in 2021 remained unchanged from the previous month’s report to stand at 27.2mn bpd, which is 5mn bpd higher than in 2020.

Global oil production in December increased by 0.58mn bpd compared to the previous month to average 92.93mn bpd, showing a year-on-year fall of 8.23mn bpd.

In December, OPEC crude oil production rose by 0.71mn bpd month-over-month to average 25.11mn bpd, according to the report. As a result, the share of OPEC crude out of total global production rose to 27.3 per cent in December, marking a 0.1 per cent increase compared with the previous month.