High risk world will breach 1.5°C warming within 5 years: UN
Geneva, Switzerland - There is a 50:50 chance of the average global temperature reaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the next five years, and the likelihood is increasing with time, according to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), published on Tuesday in Geneva.
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update also reveals a 93 per cent likelihood of at least one year between 2022 to 2026 becoming the warmest on record, knocking 2016 from the top spot.
The chance of the five-year average for this period being higher than the last five years, 2017-2021, is also 93 per cent.
The 1.5°C target is the goal of the Paris Agreement, which calls for countries to take concerted climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit global warming.
Probability rising
“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change,” said Petteri Taalas, WMO’s secretary-general.
“The 1.5°C figure is not some random statistic, but rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet.”
The chance of temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C threshold has risen steadily since 2015, according to the report, which was produced by the UK Met Office, the WMO lead centre for climate update predictions.
Back then, it was close to zero, but the probability increased to ten per cent over the past five years, and to nearly 50 per cent for the period from 2022-2026.
Edging ever closer
The Paris Agreement level of 1.5°C refers to long-term warming, but temporary exceedances are expected to occur with increasing frequency as global temperatures rise.
"A single year of exceedance above 1.5°C does not mean we have breached the iconic threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does reveal that we are edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5°C could be exceeded for an extended period," said Leon Hermanson of Britain's Met Office national weather service, who led the report. The average global temperature in 2021 was around 1.11°C above pre-industrial levels, according to provisional WMO figures.
The report said that back-toback La Nina events at the start and end of 2021 had a cooling effect on global temperatures.
However, this was only temporary and did not reverse the long-term global warming trend.
Greenhouse gas link
The annual mean global nearsurface temperature for each year between 2022 and 2026 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.7°C higher than pre-industrial levels. "For as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise," Taalas said.
There’s a 93 per cent likelihood of at least one year between 2022 to 2026 becoming the warmest on record, knocking 2016 from the top spot