WEEK AHEAD
LONDON: If Donald Trump’s election in the United States and Britain’s decision to quit the European Union stirred the global economic waters, then there is the potential for a tsunami on the near horizon.
The coming week is the last before the first round of France’s presidential election on April 23. It has already been a barrel of surprises — an incumbent not running, the far right in ascendance, an independent seen as likely winner, a scandal hampering the early favourite.
But the latest twist — one with arguably the most potential global economic impact — could conceivably see a far-left candidate, one-time communist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, make it through to the May 7 run-off against a far-right nationalist, Marine Le Pen.
The potential economic shock stems from the fact that both are against the euro and the European Union, threatening the stability and even existence of both. The word Frexit — the Gallic version of Brexit — has been doing the rounds.
Boosted by a strong performance in televised debates, Mélenchon has gathered momentum in the past week. One poll on Tuesday showed his support as high as 19 per cent, within four points of centrist Emmanuel Macron and within five of Le Pen; the latest survey on Thursday put him on 17 per cent.
“For France, Europe and markets, a run-off between Mélenchon and ultra-right Marine Le Pen on May 7 would be a choice between bad and ugly,” Berenberg bank said in a note on