Cooperation on Syria without agreeing
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to mitigate the difficult situation in Syria as he heads to Russia next week to meet with his counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Despite being a member of Nato, Turkey is flirting with Moscow, as Erdogan’s ministers play up the idea of buying Russia’s flagship missile defence system. The S-400 system would not be compatible with Nato’s defence structure and the US-made weapons Turkey already owns. Moreover, such a move would likely add to a growing sense of frustration and annoyance in the West with Ankara.
“It would not surprise me if there are some people in Turkey who genuinely think it is a good idea to have Russian missiles to shoot down US planes and US missiles to shoot down Russian planes,” says Nicholas Danforth, a senior analyst.
Moreover, it is unlikely Russia will simply hand over its top system to Turkey without getting something significant in return. Wednesday’s talks between Moscow and Ankara can at the very least create tensions in Nato, serving Putin’s interests. For Turkey, the talks represent a chance to show the West it has an alternative. Turkey’s last attempt in the late 1990s to significantly rework ties with Russia, a historic rival, failed to achieve its objectives, in part as relations soured over Chechnya. Now, the two nations are on opposite sides in the Syrian civil war.
At the end of last year, Erdogan and Putin helped negotiate a ceasefire deal in Syria, highlighting how the relationship hinges on the two leaders, rather than institutions. The cessation of violence was very short-lived. The cooperation did, however, mark a drastic turnaround from a year earlier. In November 2015, shortly after Russia began launching airstrikes in Syria to aid President Bashar al Assad, Turkey downed a Russian jet, sending relations to a nadir. Moscow cut off some trade and basically put a ban on tourism to Turkey. After the attempted coup in Turkey six months later, the two countries patched up ties. Even so, Russian trade restrictions remained and the tourists have not exactly flocked back. Turkey recently slapped what amounts to an effective 130 per cent import tax on Russian products including wheat, trying to help its importers. Also, Moscow is trying to improve the market for Russian tomato growers and is keeping out Turkish produce.
Ministerial level contacts are ongoing to head off a trade war. The economic issues will likely feature at Erdogan’s talks with Putin next week in Sochi, along with discussions on construction of Turkish Stream, a major pipeline to bring Russian natural gas to Europe.
The conflict in Syria, however, remains at the core. Erdogan’s Syria interests match with neither the United States nor Russia. Washington is focused on defeating the IS extremist group. Russia is focused on supporting the Syrian government of Al Assad, fighting the rebels.
Turkey, on the other hand, supports the very rebellion Moscow is trying to quash — it has troops on the ground inside neighbouring Syria, backing opposition forces. Analysts also note that Turkey’s number one enemy in Syria is the Kurdish militia YPG, the main and most effective US ally in the battle against IS.
“Turkey wants Assad gone and Russia wants to keep him, and these positions are not compatible in the medium and longer term,” says Nabi Abdullaev, an expert.
Turkey finds itself between two larger powers. Putting troops on the ground helped prevent the Kurds from connecting two chunks of territory and kicked IS off its border, but the move has not drastically enhanced Turkey’s relatively poor hand.
Firstly, it has been unable to turn the tide of the war in favour of the rebels. More importantly, it has not yet been able to turn the two big powers against the Kurds.
Turkish airstrikes this week against the YPG were met with disapproval by US military commanders and risk worsening the relationship with Washington ahead of Erdogan’s visit to the White House later in May — where another balancing act will take place.