Trump visit seen as long shot to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace
NO PROPOSAL: Trump administration has yet to craft a Middle East strategy
WASHINGTON/JERUSALEM: Just four months after taking office, Donald Trump will make the earliest foray into Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking by any US president next week.
But with mounting obstacles at home and abroad, he faces long odds of succeeding where more experienced predecessors have failed.
Trump has boasted that with his negotiating skills he can bring Israelis and Palestinians together to resolve one of the world’s most intractable conflicts and do “the ultimate deal”.
But officials on both sides see scant prospects for any major breakthrough in long-stalled negotiations during his 24-hour visit on Monday and Tuesday.
Even if Trump’s on-the-ground engagement may be premature, some experts say he can be expected to press Israeli and Palestinian leaders for conciliatory words if not gestures — and the two sides may struggle to accommodate him.
“The only variable that has changed is President Trump, and the fact that President Trump wants to do a deal,” said Robert Danin, a former adviser to the Middle East “Quartet” of international peace backers and now a senior analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations think-tank.
“Given the president’s proclivities, no one wants to get on his bad side,” he said.
The visit will be a significant foreign policy test for Trump, who has yet to demonstrate a firm grasp of the nuances of Middle East diplomacy.
Top advisers he has tasked with nuts-and-bolts negotiations, led by his son-in-law Jared Kushner, are also lacking experience.
The two leaders most needed to rejuvenate the peace process, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, have shown little inclination toward significant concessions — though experts say they have no choice but to cooperate with Trump.
White House aides insist Trump is getting up-to-speed on the issues and that the time could be right for his “disruptive” approach to challenge failed policies of the past. Israeli officials appear unconvinced. Asked if he understood what Trump’s Middle East policy was, one senior official replied: “I’m not entirely sure they know what it is.”
Flying in directly from his first stop in Saudi Arabia, Trump is unlikely to lay out Middle East peace proposals, not least because, as aides acknowledge, his administration has yet to craft a strategy.
There are also no plans for Trump — who will see Netanyahu in Jerusalem and Abbas in Bethlehem in the occupied West Bank — to bring the two together, one senior US official said.”We don’t think it’s the right time just yet,” the aide said.
While Israelis and Palestinians alike are uncertain what Trump will ask of them, experts believe he will be looking to coax them to make an explicit commitment to return to the table without pre-conditions, start work on a timetable for talks and consider mutual “confidencebuilding” steps.
While welcoming Trump’s efforts and committing themselves to work with him, some Palestinian officials remain wary that he has yet to publicly back a two-state solution, the longtime bedrock of US and international policy.
Trump said in February he was not necessarily wedded to that idea, saying he was happy with any deal that “both parties like”.
Hanan Ashrawi, a senior official in the Palestine Liberation Organization, said Palestinians were taking Trump’s efforts with “a very strong dose of healthy scepticism”.
US officials said the administration is also seeking to enlist Israel’s Arab neighbours in a broader regional peace process.