Syria’s Assad winning after two years of Russia bombing militants
BEIRUT: Russia has been bombing militant-controlled areas in war-torn Syria since September 2015, propping up President Bashar al Assad’s regime and saving the Middle Eastern state from collapse.
“Assad controls all the larger cities, most of the economically productive urban areas and rural areas where most people live,” says Aron Lund, a Syria expert with The Century Foundation, a US-based think tank.
“Unless something dramatic happens,” Lund says, “I think the Syrian government has more or less won the war in the larger strategic sense, or at least Assad’s opponents have lost it.”
The Russian intervention has been a “tactical success, both militarily and politically,” agrees Mark Galeotti, an author on Russian security issues.
At the very least, Russia has stopped Syria from becoming another Libya, a once robust Russian ally that is now effectively a failed state after the West helped to overthrow its ruler Moamer Gaddafi.
The deep level of support Russia is offering Syria, with moves to reinforce Russian naval and air force facilities on the country’s Mediterranean coast, will have long-lasting implications for Moscow.
“The war is a long way from being over, and Moscow is now essentially committed to supporting Assad for the duration,” says Galeotti, senior researcher at the Institute of International Relations Prague.
The destruction of the war means tens of billions will be needed to rebuild the country, with no clear source of revenue.
A patchwork of unruly pro-government forces and the reliance on Russia’s military and militias create risks for Assad. The deaths of hundreds of thousands have left the strongman leader deeply unpopular among many.
“Today we can say that it is not Assad ruling Syria, but the Russians and Iranians. They are the decision makers,” says senior opposition figure Qassem Khatib.