Shinawatra influence may not be affected by sentence

Wednesday’s sentence against former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra is the latest blow against the influence of her family and its political machine, both of which still wield considerable power in Thailand. Analysts argue that the military’s main goal in taking power in a May 2014 coup was to curtail both Yingluck and her brother Thaksin’s stranglehold on Thai politics which the army views as a threat to the established order. In addition to the conviction against Yingluck for criminal negligence, the judicial system under the junta has convicted several senior members of the Shinawatra-led Pheu Thai party to lengthy jail terms.

Former commerce minister Boonsong Teriyapirom was sentenced to 42 years in August for corruption related to the rice subsidy scheme.

However, politicians cast doubt whether Wednesday’s verdict would really derail Thaksin’s influence on the political scene.

“The verdict is merely about Yingluck. If she doesn’t want to go to jail, she can spend the rest of her life on the run,” said Paiboon Nititawan, a member of the junta’s National Reform Council and a former senator.

“As for Thaksin, I don’t think this deters him from continuing to lead the Pheu Thai party from abroad,” he said.

Thaksin is unlikely to back down despite the guilty verdict agains this sister, observers said.

Although many Thais accepted the 2014 military coup due to political fatigue after a decade of instability and street protests, continued military rule could be met with resistance.

“The military will be in power for over four years by the time elections are held late next year,” said a former Pheu Thai lawmaker who asked to not be named. “Thaksin and Yingluck are still extremely popular among the base, the people will not accept more delays and more attempts to bully our party.”

The military has tried to cement its future position however. A constitution drafted by the army to guide the country after elections also allows the military to appoint the upper house of parliament and contains clauses for an unelected prime minister.

According to Kan, continuing conflict between political factions could lead to mass protests down the line.

“The junta’s stability will severely deteriorate... and at a certain point it might spark huge protests if no one will give in and back down,” he said.