EX-VP release adds to Congo’s volatile mix

One of the world’s most unstable countries was already struggling with a political crisis and nail-biting uncertainty. A decision by a war crimes tribunal has now added to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s explosive mix. By acquitting ex-rebel and former vice-president Jean-pierre Bemba, the International Criminal Court (ICC) may have opened the way for one of DRC’S most controversial figures to weigh in on high-risk presidential elections, now just months away. Bemba, 55, has been provisionally released after the ICC ruled he had had only limited control of his militia, blamed for atrocities in the Central African Republic (CAR) more than 15 years ago.

The ruling came some six weeks before a deadline for entering candidates for the December 23 elections. President Joseph Kabila, who has ruled since 2001, should have stepped down at the end of 2016 at the end of his two-term constitutional limit.

But his final mandate was extended by a year at the cost of mass protests and bloody repression — and elections to replace him were then postponed until the end of 2018.

He has kept everyone guessing whether he intends to run again, although Prime Minister Bruno Tshibala, drawn from the ranks of the opposition, recently said in Montreal that he would not stand again.

Bemba — once a bitter rival of Kabila and whose militia clashed with government forces — now has the possibility of leaping back onto the political stage, say analysts.

After his provisional release, Bemba arrived in Belgium, the court said on Friday, where his wife and children are believed to be living.

Bemba’s big political opportunity lies in an opposition desperately looking for a single champion to back in December.

Bemba, despite the atrocities committed by his militiamen in the CAR in 2002-3, is nationally known and can count on the votes of millions in his native Equateur and Bas-congo regions.

“Knowing his ego, he will never want to be lined up behind another candidate. Jean-pierre will want to be the king,” said a veteran of Bemba’s Congolese Liberation Movement (MLC), which long ago took the path from rebel group to political party.

The MLC holds its annual congress in July. “Our president will be there,” MLC Secretary-general Eve Bazaiba vowed well before Bemba was provisionally freed on Tuesday.

Asked about his political goals, she replied details could wait until “July 12 and 13, after the MLC congress”.

Other opposition figures are discreetly adjusting their stance in the light of the new political equation.