Kabila’s decision triggers relief, but uncertainty remains
KINSHASA: By announcing he is formally stepping aside after 17 years in power, President Joseph Kabila has eased tensions in DR Congo but the volatile country remains gripped by uncertainty ahead of elections due at the end of the year.
Domestic, regional and international pressures are likely to have played a role in the president’s eagerly-awaited decision to pick a successor instead of running again.
But suspicions will run deep that Kabila, by picking a loyalist to contest the December 23 ballot, wants to wield influence behind the throne, analysts say.
“Kabila evacuated the question about his intentions from the agenda by choosing a successor,” Hans Hoebeke, senior analyst for Congo at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said.
“This should not reassure too much. There are no guarantees that the elections will effectively be held and, if they are, that they will respond to minimal criteria of credibility.”
Kabila has ruled the country since 2001 following the assassination of his father, Laurent-desire.
His tenure has been stained by a reputation for corruption and conflict.
After his two-term limit expired at the end of 2016, Kabila stayed in power, invoking a caretaker clause in the constitution to remain in office.
In recent months, he has kept everyone guessing whether he would try to run again.
On Wednesday, just hours before the deadline for filing election bids was due to expire, his office made the big announcement.
Former interior minister Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary was designated as Kabila’s ruling coalition candidate.
By choosing a close ally who is under European sanctions for human rights violations, Kabila signalled that loyalty prevailed above all other criteria.
Shadary will run against a long list of other candidates from opposing parties, and does not have widespread recognition in the country.
“His political base is in Maniema, a small artisanal mining province in the east, which includes less than five per cent of the DRC’S electorate,” said Indigo Ellis with risk analysis company Verisk Maplecroft.
If Shadary wins, Kabila will wield special clout in addition to his positions as senator and head of the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), Ellis added.
Kabila would “almost certainly remain the string-puller behind the scenes, at least initially, with Shadary as a figurehead president”, he said.
For this reason, and on the assumption that the opposition is able to unite behind a single candidate, a Shadary election victory is “bound to attract accusations of foul play,” he said.
The fate of Moise Katumbi, 53, a prominent opposition figure leading recent opinion polls who was barred from entering the country last week to lodge his candidacy, remains a concerning issue for some analysts.
“We believe that the real goal, for the moment, must be an election in which the rights of all and of every individuals are respected, in peace and equality of opportunity,” a churchbased group, CENCO, in a statement this week.
“That is the price for crediblity of the polls.” Other key questions include the government’s ability to organise the elections in time in a country the size of western Europe where infrastructure is notoriously poor.
The electoral commission said in November they expected elections to cost about $420 million.
The opposition, as well international players including the United States, have also expressed concerns with electronic voting machines that the electoral commission intends on using.