Mueller report holds dangers for Democrats
nside the Touchdown Tavern in the presidential battleground state of Wisconsin, voter Aric Nowicki worries over how the impending release of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation could affect the 2020 election for president.
Nowicki is not concerned about potential harm to President Donald Trump if Mueller accuses the Republican’s campaign of working with Russia to influence the 2016 election. Instead, the heating and airconditioning business owner fears the report could prove a political landmine for overzealous Democrats trying to take down a president they despise.
“They absolutely run the risk of overhyping it and overblowing it,” Nowicki, 41, who voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, said in Reedsburg, in southwest Wisconson. “If they take the report and spin it too far, they could end up helping Trump.”
At first glance, the long-awaited Mueller report might seem a political gift for Democrats aiming to reclaim the White House next year. If Mueller finds Trump played a role in a conspiracy with Moscow to boost his chances of winning the election or committed obstruction of justice to try to impede the probe — allegations Trump denies — the Democratic-led US House of Representatives could launch impeachment proceedings against the president.
But dealing with the probe’s conclusions will be a delicate dance for Democrats, said a halfdozen Republican, Democratic and independent strategists and analysts.
The top US Democrat, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, has tried to temper talk about impeaching Trump, noting the process is “divisive.” Mueller is widely expected to finish the investigation in the coming weeks. Strategists said candidates who focus too intently on the findings run the risk of appearing shrill and partisan. That could alienate general election voters in key battlegrounds including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which went for Democratic former president Barack Obama in 2012 but for Trump in 2016.
Yet delivering a reaction that is too muted or measured might lose votes during the party’s nominating battle, where the Russia investigation and attacking Trump animate the base.
“There is a case to prosecute against Trump with regard to his record in office. That is where I would focus,” said Karen Finney, a Democratic strategist not affiliated with any presidential campaign.
Finney, who worked inside the Bill Clinton White House during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, said Democrats should bear in mind how Republicans overplayed their hand 20 years ago. Their impeachment of Clinton and focus on the scandal backfired with voters, allowing Clinton to regain the political momentum and costing Republicans congressional seats.
Strategists in both major parties said Democratic candidates should be wary about talk of impeaching Trump or putting too much emphasis on the report in general.
“We should not be gambling our future prospects of winning back the White House on what is in the Mueller report,” said Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist who worked for Hillary Clinton and Obama’s presidential campaigns.
Strategists interviewed by Reuters said Trump likely would not suffer badly even if Mueller finds evidence damaging to him. His supporters, who are fiercely loyal, will probably see claims of wrongdoing as proof there is an FBI conspiracy against Trump, energizing them further.
According to a January Reuters/ Ipsos poll, more than two-thirds of Republicans believe the FBI and Department of Justice “are working to delegitimise President Trump through politically motivated investigations.”
The complexities and ramifications of the Russia investigation, while an obsession in Washington, barely registered for many voters who spoke to Reuters in the past week in snowy southwest Wisconsin.
At first glance, the long-awaited Mueller report on Russian influence on 2016 elections might seem a political gift for Democrats aiming to reclaim the White House next year