Argentina heads to the polls: What’s up for grabs?

Argentina’s election fever is starting to mount. The country will go to the polls for primary elections on August 11 ahead of the national ballot in October, seen as a referendum on the austerity politics of centre-right incumbent President Mauricio Macri amid a tight economic malaise. The primary covers candidates for president, some provincial governors and national legislators. The two main presidential candidates — strait-laced conservative Macri and centre-left rival Alberto Fernandez — are seen in a tight race to the finish. Fernandez, the moderate Peronist challenger, is expected to come out ahead in the more symbolic primaries.

Argentine voters will choose among 10 presidential candidates, though the main political parties have all already established their runners, making the primaries, known as the PASO, more of a giant poll on how political rivals are faring. “It’s going to be a rehearsal of the real action, giving key data for the campaigns, for citizens and investors,” said Buenos Aires-based political analyst Sergio Berensztein.

“We’re going to get a lot of insights about voting behaviour for the election. Particularly for markets it’s important. If it’s close, there’ll be rally, sovereign bonds etc. If Fernandez wins by a good margin, we might have a sell-off.” The primaries foreshadow the main general election on October 27 to choose a president, along with senators and deputies who make up the country’s two chambers of Congress. Key positions in Buenos Aires city and province are also on the table.

In order to win the presidency in the first round, a candidate needs at least 45 per cent of the vote or 40 per cent and a difference of 10 percentage points over the second place runner. If there’s no clear winner, voters will return for a run-off on November 24.

Pollsters are split about who would win a head-to-head between Macri and Fernandez. Fernandez with his running mate, ex-president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, is tapping into discontent over the economy in the recession-hit country. So, who are the main players and what do they stand for? The son of one of the most powerful businessmen in Argentina, Macri took the presidency in 2015 with a centre-right alliance that said it would shake up the political status quo and right the economy by creating more transparency and opening the country to international markets. Despite his market-friendly credentials, his popularity with voters has been hit hard, however, by an economic crisis that has seen the peso plunge and annual inflation at above 50 per cent.

Pichetto is a long-standing Peronist, who appeared to be in the opposition camp until being confirmed as Macri’s No 2. The senator should help Macri expand his electoral alliance and marks a strategic shift towards the middle-ground for the president.