Philippines central bank revises 2020 c/a forecast to $6 billion surplus
MANILA: The Philippine central bank said on Wednesday it has revised the 2020 balance of payment projections, with the current account now expected to yield a $6-billion surplus, taking into account the gradual recovery of a pandemic-ravaged economy.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) revised its current account projection to a surplus equivalent to 1.6 per cent of gross domestic product, from a May forecast of a $1.9-billion deficit, or 0.5 per cent of GDP, to reflect an expected narrower trade gap. It expects a current account surplus of $3.1 billion for next year, or 0.8 per cent of GDP.
In a statement, the BSP said it now expects a BOP surplus of $8.1 billion this year, or 2.2 per cent of GDP, significantly higher than the May projection of $0.6 billion, or 0.2 per cent of GDP.
It sees a BOP surplus of $3.4 billion, or 0.9 per cent of GDP, for next year.
The Southeast Asian country’s gross international reserves are expected to reach $100 billion by end-2020, higher than the May forecast of $90 billion, and rise to $102 billion next year. Exports are still projected to contract 16 per cent this year, but will likely recover in 2021 with a 5 per cent growth rate, the BSP said.
However, imports are seen declining 20 per cent this year, steeper than the previous forecast of an 18-per cent drop, before rising 8 per cent next year, it said.
Despite the improved BOP outlook, however, the BSP warned that uncertainty remains over the duration, direction and extent of the pandemic’s impact on the economy.