China’s exports, imports seen staying buoyant
Improved global demand and a favourable base effect are likely to have kept China’s exports buoyant in March, while higher oil prices will have been boosted its imports, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.
China’s trade surplus is expected to be $52.05 billion in March, following a surplus of $103.25 billion in the first two months of the year, according to a median forecast in a Reuters poll of 27 economists. The data will be released on Tuesday.
Exports are expected to have risen 35.5 per cent in March from a year earlier, according to the poll. The number was down from 60.6 per cent jump in January-february, as the year-ago level suffered a deeper contraction as the coronavirus outbreak in China passed through its peak.
The rebound of overseas demand for Chinese goods continued with the recovery of the global economy amid greater vaccination efforts. Surveys showed US factory activity picked up in March amid strong growth in new orders, and the growth in Eurozone monthly factory activity was the fastest on record.
Official and private manufacturing surveys in China pointed to robust growth, with export orders returning to growth amid improving foreign demand. Imports likely rose 23.3 per cent in March versus a year ago, the poll showed, slightly higher than the 22.2 per cent gain in the first two months of the year.
“Import growth might have stayed solid in March on the back of more working days (this year relative to last year), healthy underlying domestic demand, and also higher oil prices,” Goldman Sachs’ economists said.