What next for Afghanistan as foreign troops leave
With the United States military presence in Afghanistan effectively over, the country faces an uncertain future with Taliban attacks rampant and the threat of civil war looming. Fears are growing that the loss of vital American air cover — massively curtailed by the closure of Bagram air base — will knock the Afghan government’s ability to hold power, as multiple players circle to take advantage of the power vacuum.
While Washington’s withdrawal ends America’s longest war, the conflict in Afghanistan continues, with no obvious signs of a ceasefire.
The insurgents appear focused instead on a total military victory and the overthrow of President Ashraf Ghani.
They have recently made huge advances across the country, claiming control of dozens of new districts, but Afghan security forces remain in firm control of major cities.
“For now, the fighting will intensify and Afghan forces will have a hard time sustaining militarily on their own’’, Afghan Security Analyst Bari Arez said.
A leaked internal US intelligence assessment reportedly said the Taliban could take Kabul within six months of the US departure.
Government forces and the Taliban regularly claim to have inflicted enormous casualties on each other, but independent verification is impossible.
However, the number of targeted assassinations of educated Afghans, and sticky bomb attacks against civilians, has dropped in recent weeks.
That remains to be seen, with an all-out civil war looming. US air power had been a key factor in the ongoing fight, offering vital support to Afghan security forces when they risked being overwhelmed.
In a sign of possible growing desperation, the Afghan government has made calls for civilians to form militias to fight the Taliban — a move some analysts say could only add fuel to the fire.
“This strategy has to be well-led, wellorchestrated and well-controlled or else it might backfire’’, said a foreign security analyst who did not want to be named.
For now, the fighting will intensify and Afghan forces will have a hard time sustaining militarily on their own
BARI AREZ Afghan Security Analyst