Americans move to climate-risky spots
Pickup truck by a set of new buildings near the beachfront in New Hanover County, North Carolina - an area he says is prone to flooding. “That’s crazy. That never should have gone in here,” he said, referring to new development blocks away from the US East Coast.
“Whenever I get on the phone with the county, usually within 30 days we have significant flooding,” said the former oceanographer, after opening a presentation and flicking through slides of flooded roads and areas around the region.
The burgeoning county has faced a barrage of recent storms and is at major risk of flooding again over the next 30 years, according to First Street Foundation, a climate risk tracking group.
Parr and other activists are racing to prevent another major development on an approximately eight-acre patch of land farther north, across from downtown Wilmington, in a spot uniquely prone to flooding.
Precisely how to build in floodplains and areas most at risk from climate change amid continued population growth is an issue US officials are grappling with as people and developers move into - not away from - perils like flooding and wildfires.
“The challenge of managing climate risk in the long term is much, much harder if we continue to develop in hazardous places the way we have been to date,” said Miyuki Hino, assistant professor in the Department of City and Regional Planning at the University of North Carolina.
For years, local officials have been grappling with what to do with a tract of land along the western bank of the Cape Fear River across from Wilmington — an area that floods relatively routinely even outside of major storms.
Much of the patch nearby is still zoned industrial, and options range from expanding open space to rezoning the area to allow for highdensity, mixed-use development.
Developers had proposed three multi-story towers, 550 condominium units and 300 apartments for a spot known as Point Peter, at the confluence of the Cape Fear River and Northeast Cape Fear River, but the project stalled in 2021 as county officials wanted more time to assess longer-term plans.
Kirk Pugh of KFJ Development Group, the project’s developer, is frustrated with the slow pace - and said building in and around the Cape Fear River area can be done safely.
The original concept included a “sacrificial first floor” and a stormwater capture and release design among the features, he noted, that would allow water to move “freely” if a freshwater flooding event occurred.
“The argument that we shouldn’t build in a floodplain... well, most of our county is in a floodplain,” he said.
Those opposed to building up the area say it does not make sense to pursue even scaled-back versions, given the long-term trends of sea level rise and climate change fuelling more intense storms and flooding in the region.
“Risky isn’t even the right word,” said Kemp Burdette with Cape Fear River Watch, an advocacy group. “Risk indicates that something might happen or it might not happen. A flood over there is inevitable.”
Wilmington’s location toward the end of the massive Cape Fear River Basin and just west of the Atlantic Ocean makes it uniquely at risk for flooding from multiple sources, including natural sea level rise.
Out of 40 areas across the US, Wilmington experienced the biggest increase in “nuisance”, or high tide, flooding days due to tidal changes over the past 70 years or so, according to a 2021 study from University of Central Florida researchers. And in New Hanover County, 40 per cent of properties have greater than a 26 per cent chance of being severely affected by flooding over the next three decades, according to projections from First Street.
THE BURGEONING NEW HANOVER COUNTY HAS FACED A BARRAGE OF RECENT STORMS AND IS AT MAJOR RISK OF FLOODING AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 30 YEARS