European Union sees no Brexit U-turn now
While officially the door remains open to Britain to stay, many on the continent would not welcome a U-turn now
BRUSSELS: Tony Blair wants fellow Britons to “rise up” and block or soften Brexit, but it may now be out of their hands — many Europeans just want them to get on and get out.
After their June referendum vote to quit the EU, stunned European leaders insisted Britons were welcome to change their minds. That may have encouraged those like ex-premier Blair who last week challenged Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to launch the process next month and exit in two years whatever the EU offers.
Yet whatever their hopes of legal obstacles or of an electoral backlash, the mood across the rest of the bloc has shifted away. While officially the door remains open to Britain to stay, many on the continent would not welcome a U-turn now. “This bus has left,” said one senior EU diplomat.
“No one is happy about it. But we have moved on and the last thing anyone wants now is to reopen the whole issue.”
To be sure, with close-fought elections in core EU members France and Germany this year and upstart populist movements shaking up politics across the region, few would want to predict with any confidence the final outcome of the Brexit process.
Yet that view shared by diplomats from a range of the other 27 EU states, and by some EU officials: “It’s going to happen,” one of the latter said. “It’s bureaucratically embedded.”
Even among allies with most to lose from Brexit, there is little talk of a reprieve: “We have to accept the decision that Brexit will happen,” Irish Europe Minister Dara Murphy told a Dublin forum where many voiced fears for Ireland’s economy.
From the European Commission, the Brussels executive whose Michel Barnier will negotiate Brexit for the Union, some also detect harder tone, warning against those in Britain who want to pull back from a “hard Brexit”, or the clean break with the EU market that May spelled out last month.
“’I’m a bit in, I’m a bit out, maybe tomorrow I’ll be back’... -- this isn’t on,” Commission President JeanClaude Juncker chided last week. “You’re either in, or you’re out.”
“The mood in Brussels... has hardened really over the last few weeks,” said Giles Merritt, chairman of Brussels think-tank Friends of Europe.
Some still talk of hope: “Despite the hard rhetoric and threats by the British government... the European Union remains a project of mending,” said German lawmaker Terry Reintke, who speaks on Brexit for the Greens in the European Parliament. “If the UK was to decide to stay a member of the European Union, the Greens will fight against closing the door.” But Germany, France and other big powers worry that being soft on London could lead to a further unravelling of the EU.