Asia-Pacific set to drive growth
Over this period, increasing numbers of first time flyers, rising disposable income spent on air travel, expanding tourism, industry liberalisation, new routes and evolving airline business models are driving the need for 34,170 passengers and 730 freighter aircraft, worth a combined total of $5.3 trillion. “More and more tourists are travelling by air, which is also driving demand for aircraft,” noted Leahy. “Over 70 per cent of new units are single aisle, with 60 per cent for growth and 40 per cent for replacement of less fuel efficient aircraft.”
A doubling in the commercial fleet over the next 20 years sees a need for 530,000 new pilots and 550,000 new maintenance engineers, and provides the Airbus’ global services business a catalyst to grow. Airbus has expanded its global network of training locations from five to 16 in the space of three years.
Air traffic growth is highest in emerging markets, such as China, India, the rest of Asia and Latin America and almost double the 3.2 per cent per year growth forecast in mature markets, such as North America and Western Europe. Emerging markets are currently home to 6.4 billion of the world’s 7.4 billion population, and will account for nearly half of the world’s private consumption by 2036. “Air travel is remarkably resilient to external shocks and doubles every 15 years,” noted Leahy. “Asia Pacific continues to be an engine for growth, with domestic China poised to become the world’s largest market. Disposable incomes are growing and in emerging economies the number of people taking a flight will nearly triple between now and 2036.” Referring to the Middle East region, the Airbus official said air passenger traffic had surged 16 times in the last 10 years between 2006 and 2016.
Leahy said the Asia-Pacific region is driving growth in air traffic. The US domestic market is single largest aviation market in the world. However, China’s domestic market will emerge as the single largest market in the next 20 years. Over the next two decades, Asia Pacific is set to take 41 per cent of the new deliveries, followed by Europe, with 20 per cent and North America at 16 per cent. Middle class numbers will almost double to nearly five billion as wealth creation makes aviation even more accessible, particularly in emerging economies, where spending on air travel services is set to double.