Times of Oman

US core capital goods new orders boost business spending outlook

The Commerce Department’s report prompted some economists to raise their economic growth estimates for the first three months of the year.

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WASHINGTON: New orders for key US-made capital goods rebounded more than expected in February after two straight monthly declines and shipments surged, which could temper expectatio­ns of a sharp slowdown in business spending on equipment in the first quarter.

The Commerce Department’s report on Friday prompted some economists to raise their economic growth estimates for the first three months of the year. They were slashed last week after data showed retail sales fell in February for the third month in a row.

The Federal Reserve painted an upbeat picture of the economy on Wednesday when it raised interest rates and forecast at least two more increases for 2018.

“There is speculatio­n that the economy is running out of room to grow. But the jump in core durable goods purchases, machinery that is used in factory production, keeps the recession winds at bay,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

Orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, jumped 1.8 per cent last month as demand increased almost across the board. That was the biggest gain in five months and followed a 0.4 per cent decrease in January.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast those orders to rise 0.8 per cent in February. Core capital goods orders increased 7.4 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

Shipments of core capital goods increased 1.4 per cent last month, the biggest advance since December 2016, after a 0.1 per cent gain in January. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government’s gross domestic product measuremen­t. Business spending on equipment powered ahead in 2017 as companies anticipate­d a hefty reduction in the corporate income tax rate. The Trump administra­tion slashed that rate to 21 per cent from 35 per cent effective in January.

US financial markets were little moved by the data as investors worried that President Donald Trump’s announceme­nt on Thursday of tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese goods could start a global trade war.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower while prices of US Treasuries were mixed. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies.

Strong business spending

There had been concerns spending could slow sharply after double-digit growth in the last two quarters. While the surge in core capital goods orders in February suggests business spending on equipment is on solid footing, economists said the threat of a trade war cast a cloud on the outlook for capital investment.

“Uncertaint­y hurts capital spending and the greatest uncertaint­y in the economic environmen­t at present is the wild-card threat that US tariff actions poses to the global trading system,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

For now, spending on equipment remains underpinne­d by robust business confidence, strengthen­ing global economic growth and a weakening dollar, which is boosting demand for US exports. That is helping to support manufactur­ing, which accounts for about 12 per cent of US economic activity.

The strength in core capital goods shipments, together with a surge in industrial production in February, could help offset the impact of soft consumer spending on first-quarter growth. Economists at Barclays raised their first-quarter GDP growth estimate by onetenth of a percentage point to a 1.9 per cent annualised rate. JP Morgan lifted its estimate for equipment spending growth in the first three months of the year to a 7 per cent rate from 5 per cent.

 ?? - Reuters file picture ?? VALUABLE SHIPMENTS: Shipments of core capital goods increased 1.4 per cent last month, the biggest advance since December 2016, after a 0.1 per cent gain in January.
- Reuters file picture VALUABLE SHIPMENTS: Shipments of core capital goods increased 1.4 per cent last month, the biggest advance since December 2016, after a 0.1 per cent gain in January.

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