Strong chance of new El Niño forming by early 2019

GENEVA: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says there’s a 75-80 per cent chance of a weak El Niño forming within three months.

The naturally occurring event causes changes in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and has a major influence on weather patterns around the world. It is linked to floods in South America and droughts in Africa and Asia.

El Niño events often lead to record temperatures as heat rises from the Pacific.

According to the WMO update, sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific have been at weak El Niño levels since October. However, the atmosphere has not yet responded to the extra warmth that’s produced by the upwelling seas.

Scientists have been predicting the likelihood of a new event since May this year, with confidence increasing. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology are now estimating that an El Niño event will start in December. US forecasters are saying there’s a 90 per cent chance of the event starting in January.

The WMO models say that a fully-fledged El Niño is estimated to be 75-80 per cent likely between December and February 2019.

At this point, the WMO says its predictions for the event range from just a warm-neutral condition through to a moderate strength event with sea surface temperatures peaking between 0.8C to 1.2C above average.

The chance of a strong event is currently low. “The forecast El Niño is not expected to be as powerful as the event in 2015-2016, which was linked with droughts, flooding and coral bleaching in different parts of the world,” said Director of WMO’s Climate Prediction and Adaptation branch.

In terms of food security, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) have issued a report detailing the countries that could suffer food shortages as a result of the event, the BBC news reported.