RARE BACK-TO-BACK CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ARABIAN SEA

With the rise in the temperatures of oceans, the impact of cyclones is becoming severe

MUSCAT: The Arabian Sea last week witnessed the rare phenomenon of two storms forming in its waters one after the other, after Tropical Storm Maha took shape just days after the formation of Cyclone Kyarr.

Cyclone Kyarr crossed Socotra Island yesterday and is likely to affect parts of Yemen. Tropical Storm Maha is moving in a North/North Westerly direction off the coast of India, bringing heavy rain and wind to South India and Sri Lanka, before veering back to the centre of the Arabian Sea, although it is still more than 1,000 km away from Oman.

Arabian Sea

Commenting on this, Abdullah Al Khadouri, a senior meteorologist at the Directorate General of Meteorology at Oman’s Public Authority of Civil Aviation said, “It’s very rare for two cyclones to form at the same time in the Arabian Sea. I believe this is because of the climate change and the rising temperatures of the oceans. It’s difficult to predict that the two cyclones will meet together but this is could happen.”

Al Khadouri was speaking in the context of cyclones Kyarr and Maha that had developed one after the other in the Arabian Sea. While Kyarr is expected to move towards Yemen and Somalia while remaining off the coast of Oman without causing any direct damage, Maha was also forming in the Arabian Sea during the final days of October, with PACA having classified it as a tropical storm on 31 October, and announcing on 1 November that it was over 1,000 km away from Oman.

Maha is the fourth tropical depression to have formed in the Arabian Sea in 2019, the others being Kyarr, Hikaa and Vayu. Al Khadouri said on 2 November, “Kyarr is currently crossing Socotra Island as a tropical low pressure phenomenon with some chances of rain remaining over the Dhofar Governorate today. Maha is still classified as a storm moving north and north-west into the central Arabian Sea as meteorological reports and follow-ups continue.

“There is currently the direct passage of Kyarr over the island of Socotra, with varying degrees of heavy rainfall,” he added. “There is likely to be rain today and tomorrow.”

As oceans get warmer, the impact of cyclones gets worse due to stronger wind speeds, which could cause more damage if they make landfall.

Tropical storm

“Warmer sea surface temperatures could intensify tropical storm wind speeds, potentially delivering more damage if they make landfall. Based on sophisticated computer modelling, scientists expect a two to 11 per cent increase in average maximum wind speed, with more occurrences of the most intense storms,” said the Centre for Climate

Change and Energy Solutions.

“Warmer seas also mean more precipitation. Rainfall rates during these storms are projected to increase by about 20 per cent and this can sometimes have more destructive impact.”

“The oceans have taken in nearly all of the excess energy created by global warming, absorbing 93 per cent of the increase in the planet’s energy inventory from 1971-2010,” added the Union of Concerned Scientists.

In some ocean basins, the intensification of hurricanes over time has been linked to rising ocean temperatures.”

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration added, “Tropical cyclone rainfall rates will likely increase in the future due to anthropogenic warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content.