Potatoes and the PM
ONE innocent remark made by the prime minister turned potatoes into the most debated commodity for the whole week. Speaking to the media, he claimed that during his glorious reign the price of potatoes had gone down from Rs80 a kilo to merely Rs5 a kilo - a fifteen-fold deflation. One can safely guess that he had just visited a vegetable stall set up to cheer him up, the way our able bureaucrats used to set up field hospitals for the benefit of the Khadim-e-Ala during his visits to flood-affected areas. And long before the Sharif era they used to print special editions of newspapers that were read only by Field Marshal Ayub Khan.
In this case, though, an army of trolls soon joined hands with journalists to take the prime minster to task because potatoes were actually selling at Rs20 a kilo. However, both the prime minister and his critics appeared to agree that if potatoes were sold at that price, it would be an ideal situation. Should the prime minister or our media be happy if potatoes go down to as much as five rupees a kilo?
The prime minister is a shrewd businessman who knows his numbers well. If a special stall was not the reason, we can assume that he was trying to convert his message into the language of media narratives. During the pre-Partition days there was a popular stereotype that numbers and figures belonged to the 'banyas' while Muslims were no good at mathematics. Our journalists can be credited for keeping that tradition alive 68 years later. Our reporters often fail to differentiate between 'mehngai' and inflation; confuse millions with billions and can replace dollars with rupees and rupees with dollars.
Mehngai remains one of the most favourite topics for the media at a time when inflation is extremely low, so low that it can take the whole economy down with it. However, much like temperature, inflation in figures and inflation in feeling may differ. Things may appear costlier or out of reach not only because of inflation but also because of poverty, unemployment, inequality and lack of economic activity. Rather than making the government accountable on these counts, media persons like to raise the question of mehngai - and in return they get the price of potatoes. Though crude prices may be the main factor for low inflation, the prime minister, as a politician, has every right to boast about it. But unfortunately, journalists cannot be satisfied with the figures of low inflation. They can be happy only if prices go down - deflation. Deflation, which happens when inflation falls below zero percent, can be a disaster for the economy. The vegetable market is the only place where the prime minister can break news of runaway deflation because prices here go up and down throughout the year. However, your street vegetable vendor can tell you that, apart from the brutal commands of demand and supply, the middleman is the sole ruler of this place.
The prime minister is correct to the extent that the price of potatoes has gone down recently but this has happened because the new harvest has started and hoarders have offloaded an estimated 300,000 tonnes of last year's potato stock in the wholesale market at a price of Rs6 to Rs9 per kg. Since a small surplus can play havoc with a commodity, this is a good way of putting pressure on the price of the fresh potato crop which is normally harvested from mid-January to mid-April.
Last year the middlemen procured potato from farmers at Rs2 per kg but in the market it sold over Rs30 per kg throughout the year. Officials at the Ministry of National Food Security and Research have shared their fears with the press that hoarders may repeat this performance again with disastrous consequences for farmers, most of whom are poorer than urban consumers. While the potato demand of the country is estimated to be around 3 million tons per annum, this year Pakistan is expected to harvest a record over 3.7 million tons. This is good news for the agriculture sector, where most crops have failed recently due to changing weather patterns; and prices have also tumbled. However, if the surplus is not managed in time, this bumper harvest can result in bankruptcy for farmers. The ministry has warned the government that farmers may face serious losses if immediate measures are not taken for potato export. In their estimates, early export of 500,000 tons of potato can stabilise the domestic price and protect the farmers. However, once the crop has left the farm gate, only middlemen and exporters can benefit - at the cost of farmers. In today's neoliberal global economy and Pakistan's politics dominated by the middle class, the small farmer has no voice and no representation.