Chile's democracy enters a rough patch

One frequent (and accurate!) criticism of political scientists is that we tend to stick too closely to our specialties -- at the expense of learning from what those in other areas of the discipline know. That's why I'm going to pay more attention to world elections, beginning with Chile, which votes on Nov. 19 for president, congress, and regional offices. To kick things off, I spoke with Kristina Mani, an associate professor at Oberlin College and author of "Democratization and Military Transformation in Argentina and Chile: Rethinking Rivalry." The following transcript of our conversation was lightly edited.

Jonathan Bernstein: What should those of us in the United States and the rest of the world know about the upcoming elections?

Kristina Mani: Voters are disappointed with political leaders of the last decade who didn't come through with promised social reforms like support for public education funding and more protective labor laws. More recently the economy has gotten anemic.

In the vote for president, the leading candidate is Sebastián Piñera on the political right, a billionaire businessman who was previously president from 2010 to 2014. He faces an array of leftist competitors, including the lead candidate on the left, Alejandro Gullier, a senator and former journalist. But Chile's electoral rules make a second round of election (on December 17) likely, because no polls are predicting Piñera or any other candidate will gain the necessary 50% of the vote required to win outright in the first round. In the second round with only two presidential candidates remaining, the outcome will depend on how well the left can rally their supporters, and with little enthusiasm for any of the candidates on the left, analysts are already predicting a second Piñera presidency.

Probably the most important big picture thing about this election: the election won't bring any sort of radical change to Chile or the region. Since returning to democracy in 1990, after 17 years of repressive military rule, Chile is one of the hemisphere's most stable democracies -- it has strong institutions and established political parties, as well as constitutional rules that set a high bar against dramatic changes in policy. Stability like that is good in a lot of ways, because it forces politicians to try to achieve compromises and consensus positions on policies. But stability can also alienate the public, for instance when political leaders make campaign promises they can't keep later, or when the same folks keep surfacing as the main candidates -- and right now we're seeing exactly that kind of voter frustration. Recent polls predict only 43% of Chileans will vote in the election on the 19th, which would be a record low.

So there's a cost to the stability Chile has become known for, in terms of popular satisfaction. Democracies need renewal, and Chile is no exception. JB: What kinds of economic changes, especially in trade policy, is Piñera promising? If he does win, how much change if any could the United States and other trade partners expect?

KM: Chile already has a very open market-based economy, including a free trade agreement with the US and with all the major economic players (the EU, China, India, South Korea, Mexico, Mercosur). Although free trade seems to be under fire globally, Chile has an export-oriented economy and certainly won't close its trade borders. But whoever comes to the presidency will face the challenge of restarting economic growth, which until 2014 was averaging an impressive 5% annually and since then has slipped to under 2%. Piñera would likely ease restrictions on private investment and development of energy and mining sectors, which is sure to get blowback from local environmentalists.

One thing that's interesting about Chile's economy is its record of sound fiscal policy. Governments have been careful to build surpluses in good times, which gives them greater capacity to stimulate the economy in periods of recession without going into major debt. For comparison, if the US national debt is about 75% of GDP, Chile's is about 20% of GDP. Piñera will not shake up the fiscal house, and currency markets have already rewarded Chile with stronger peso valuation in anticipation of his election.