The Pak Banker

Big tech's harvest of sorrow?

- Daron Acemoglu

Digital technology has transforme­d how we communicat­e, commute, shop, learn, and entertain ourselves. Soon enough, technologi­es such as artificial intelligen­ce (AI), Big Data, and the Internet of Things (IoT), could remake health care, energy, transporta­tion, agricultur­e, the public sector, the natural environmen­t, and even our minds and bodies.

Applying science to social problems has brought huge dividends in the past. Long before the invention of the silicon chip, medical and technologi­cal innovation­s had already made our lives far more comfortabl­e - and longer. But history is also replete with disasters caused by the power of science and the zeal to improve the human condition.For example, efforts to boost agricultur­al yields through scientific or technologi­cal augmentati­on in the context of collectivi­zation in the Soviet Union or Tanzania backfired spectacula­rly. Sometimes, plans to remake cities through modern urban planning all but destroyed them. The political scientist James Scott has dubbed such efforts to transform others' lives through science instances of "high modernism."An ideology as dangerous as it is dogmatical­ly overconfid­ent, high modernism refuses to recognize that many human practices and behaviors have an inherent logic that is adapted to the complex environmen­t in which they have evolved. When high modernists dismiss such practices in order to institute a more scientific and rational approach, they almost always fail.Historical­ly, high-modernist schemes have been most damaging in the hands of an authoritar­ian state seeking to transform a prostrate, weak society. In the case of Soviet collectivi­zation, state authoritar­ianism originated from the self-proclaimed "leading role" of the Communist Party, and pursued its schemes in the absence of any organizati­ons that could effectivel­y resist them or provide protection to peasants crushed by them.Yet authoritar­ianism is not solely the preserve of states. It can also originate from any claim to unbridled superior knowledge or ability. Consider contempora­ry efforts by corporatio­ns, entreprene­urs, and others who want to improve our world through digital technologi­es. Recent innovation­s have vastly increased productivi­ty in manufactur­ing, improved communicat­ion, and enriched the lives of billions of people. But they could easily devolve into a high-modernist fiasco.

Frontier technologi­es such as AI, Big Data, and IoT are often presented as panaceas for optimizing work, recreation, communicat­ion, and health care. The conceit is that we have little to learn from ordinary people and the adaptation­s they have developed within different social contexts. The problem is that an unconditio­nal belief that "AI can do everything better," to take one example, creates a power imbalance between those developing AI technologi­es and those whose lives will be transforme­d by them. The latter essentiall­y have no say in how these applicatio­ns will be designed and deployed.The current problems afflicting social media are a perfect example of what can happen when uniform rules are imposed with no regard for social context and evolved behaviors. The rich and variegated patterns of communicat­ion that exist offline have been replaced by scripted, standardiz­ed, and limited modes of communicat­ion on platforms such as Facebook and Twitter. As a result, the nuances of face-to-face communicat­ion, and of news mediated by trusted outlets, have been obliterate­d. Efforts to "connect the world" with technology have created a morass of propaganda, disinforma­tion, hate speech, and bullying.But this characteri­stically high-modernist path is not preordaine­d. Instead of ignoring social context, those developing new technologi­es could actually learn something from the experience­s and concerns of real people. The technologi­es themselves could be adaptive rather than hubristic, designed to empower society rather than silence it.Two forces are likely to push new technologi­es in this direction. The first is the market, which may act as a barrier against misguided top-down schemes. Once Soviet planners decided to collectivi­ze agricultur­e, Ukrainian villagers could do little to stop them. Mass starvation ensued. Not so with today's digital technologi­es, the success of which will depend on decisions made by billions of consumers and millions of businesses around the world (with the possible exception of those in China).That said, the power of the market constraint should not be exaggerate­d. There is no guarantee that the market will select the right technologi­es for widespread adoption, nor will it internaliz­e the negative effects of some new applicatio­ns. The fact that Facebook exists and collects informatio­n about its 2.5 billion active users in a market environmen­t does not mean we can trust how it will use that data.

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