The Pak Banker

German bond yield edges down from 3-month highs

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Germany's benchmark 10year bond yield edged off three-month highs on Tuesday as investors waited for a fresh steer before pushing borrowing costs any higher.

Government bond yields across the single currency bloc rose sharply after the European Union granted Britain a Brexit extension and as upbeat news on U.S.-China trade talks boosted optimism in world markets, denting safe-haven assets.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve set to conclude a twoday policy meeting on Wednesday, trading was largely subdued. The Fed is widely tipped to trim interest rates by 25 basis points, the third cut this year.

"The Fed is by far the most important factor now," said Antoine Bouvet, senior rates strategist at ING.

"There is a gap in expectatio­ns over whether the Fed will cut rates and pause or signal further easing because of a deteriorat­ion in the data."

Most 10-year bond yields across the bloc were around two basis points lower on the day .

Germany's 10-year Bund yield dipped to -0.35%, off a three-month high hit around - 0.32%.

It is up 23 basis points so far in October and set for its biggest monthly jump since early 2018, largely driven by optimism that Britain will avoid a no-deal Brexit.

That in turn has helped ease concern about the global growth outlook, pushing longer-dated 30-year bond yields back into positive territory and steepening the German yield curve.

"There is a feeling that yields have gone far enough for now," said Peter McCallum, rates strategist at Mizuho.

Indeed, with Brexit uncertaint­y likely to be replaced by election uncertaint­y in Britain, selling in safe-haven bond markets would likely be limited for now, analysts said.

Britain's parliament rejected Prime Minister Boris Johnson's third attempt to schedule a Dec. 12 election. Johnson has said he will try again, by a different legislativ­e route that would only require a simple majority.

The restarting of European Central Bank asset purchases on Wednesday was expected to support euro zone bond markets in the near term.

Wednesday will also see the launch of the ECB's new tiered rate to help mitigate the side effects of negative interest rates on the banking sector.

Banks have been raising the rate at which they lend to each other over several months, anticipati­ng that some cash will be withdrawn from the market and parked at the ECB when the new rate takes effect Oct. 30.

German business morale held steady in October and Europe's largest economy should expand slightly in the fourth quarter after contractin­g earlier in the year, the Ifo economic institute said on Friday.

Ifo said its business climate index was unchanged from the prior month in October at 94.6. That was just above the consensus forecast for 94.5.

"The German economy is stabilisin­g," Ifo President Clemens Fuest said in a statement.

Europe's economic powerhouse contracted in the second quarter and many economists expect it to have shrunk in the third quarter. That would put it in recession - usually defined as a period of at least two consecutiv­e quarters of contractio­n.

But Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe told Reuters: "For the fourth quarter, we expect a slight expansion." Ifo's index on current conditions fell to 97.8 from 98.6 in September. But its expectatio­ns index rose to 91.5 from 90.9.

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