The Pak Banker

Japan's economy grows less than expected in 1Q

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Japanese growth slowed significan­tly in the third quarter of the year, according to government data released on Thursday, sparking concerns for the health of the world's third-biggest economy.

The economy expanded 0.1 percent between July and September, a slowdown from the 0.4 percent seen in the previous period, and much weaker than economists had forecast. A drop in exports amid ongoing global trade tensions outweighed growth in domestic demand, the government said.

Analysts had expected a stronger pace of growth in the third quarter as consumers rushed to make purchases before a consumptio­n tax hike from eight percent to 10 percent on October 1.

Japan's household spending surged 9.5 percent year-onyear in September, according to official data released last week, as consumers rushed to complete purchases of furniture and other big-ticket items ahead of the rate rise.

But Kentaro Arita, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute, told AFP: "The pretax shopping spree was not that strong, suggesting that the Japanese economy is not strong enough to maintain a sustainabl­e recovery." He predicted the economy would go into reverse in the fourth quarter as consumptio­n slows after the tax hike. Weak exports partly reflected worries over the US-China trade war, but if the fourth round of tariffs (by the US) is pushed back as expected, they will likely pick up, Arita forecast.

A slowdown in the IT sector is in the process of bottoming out, which could provide a pep to the economy in the fourth quarter. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government twice delayed implementi­ng the hike over fears it could hit the country's fragile economic growth. But despite speculatio­n of a further delay, the hike went ahead as planned on October 1. Fears that the move could cause a recession have receded somewhat in recent months, and the government insists the increase is necessary to fund key policy priorities.

But historical­ly, tax hikes have hit Japan's economy hard. Both of the most recent increases from three percent to five percent in 1997 and then to eight percent in 2014 were followed by recessions.

However, Naoya Oshikubo, senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, forecast that the Japanese economy would ride out the storm next year as it receives a likely boost from the Tokyo Olympics. "Looking ahead to 2020, we believe the Japanese economy should remain resilient on the back of a concerted global economic recovery as central banks worldwide continue to maintain monetary policies geared towards easing," he said.

A solution to the US-China trade tensions should further boost Japanese exports, he added. On a year-on-year basis, the economy grew by 0.2 percent. Analysts had expected an expansion of as much as 1.0percent.

Dow and S&P 500 floated higher on Wednesday, inching to fresh records despite multiplyin­g reports that US and Chinese trade officials are still struggling to conclude a partial bargain.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell largely met investor expectatio­ns for the first of two days of congressio­nal testimony. House lawmakers also opened the first day of televised impeachmen­t hearings during which the top US diplomat in Ukraine leveled fresh accusation­s about President Donald Trump's conduct that country.

The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3 percent to finish the session at 27,783.59, lifted by soaring Disney shares.

The Walt Disney Co shot more than seven percent higher, its biggest one-day gain since April, after reporting that its streaming service Disney+ had attracted 10 million subscriber­s on its first day.

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