Architect of political game stays put
Tmonth of November was expected be a crucial one in Pakistani politics, and that has proved to be so. First, there was Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman's long march against the backdrop of the extension of General Qamar Javed Bajwa's tenure as Chief of Army Staff. Then former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's illness put immense pressure on both the security establishment and Prime Minister Imran Khan. This paved the way for pushing the establishment on the back foot, as not only has Sharif been allowed to travel abroad for medical treatment, but the powers that be have also decided not to back Khan in his witch-hunt in the accountability courts against his political opponents.
It also appears that another prominent but ailing opposition figure, Asif Ali Zardari of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), will get relief through the courts on health grounds at some point. This has dented Khan's narrative of "accountability" that remains his only slogan to keep his vote bank intact. So he is furious as his lack of political acumen regarding when and where to rise above petty politics and his backers gradually leaving him on his own have created a lot of political problems for him.
Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, enjoys a very thin majority in the National Assembly and in the province of Punjab and right now both of PTI's allies, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid e Azam Group (PMQ) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), have started showing dissent toward the politics of Khan and his cabinet. Anyone with a little knowledge of Pakistani politics knows that both the PML-Q and MQM always lend their support to the invisible forces so as to maneuver on the power chessboard. On the other hand, both the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) are confident that either Khan will be ousted within a year or midterm elections will be held in 2020.
This leaves the whole situation gloomy for Khan, who is under immense pressure for failing to address either domestic or international issues as his focus remains only on criticizing his political opponents and trying to put them behind bars. So on Monday while inaugurating a section of the Hazara Motorway that was launched and almost finished by Sharif, Khan looked very angry and lost his cool while addressing the audience. He mocked PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto, again made derogatory comments about Fazal and, as usual, accused the Sharif family of looting the public purse.
His below-the-belt language and harsh words were evidence that he can sense what the future holds for him. After all, he has become a burden for his backers, who themselves are under immense pressure for bringing him to power.
General Bajwa, considered to be the architect of the current political discourse by many analysts, has lost some political space because of Fazal's Islamabad sit-in and Sharif's defiance. However, contrary to the speculation spread by many analysts and journalists, Bajwa is not going anywhere and will remain at the helm of military affairs. Likewise Khan will not be sent packing right away, as the more time he spends in power the more his inability to govern the country will be exposed. Perhaps that is the reason MajorGeneral Asif Ghafoor, the director general of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), gave a statement on Monday that the army and the government were both on the same page, to end the speculations of an imminent regime change and give Khan a face-saving out for his political and governance failures.
So the situation on the power chessboard right now is interesting. The establishment has gone on the back foot and will have to sacrifice Khan at some stage, willingly or unwillingly. Khan knows this but cannot do much about it as his entire politics is based on hatred and narcissism. Zardari's PPP and the PML-N in the absence of Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz, along with Fazal, will be the main beneficiaries whenever the establishment ditches Khan.