India, Indonesia eye a world beyond US vs China
Ware witnessing today an emerging club of nations whose leaders guide them more in a wisdom of patience, non-conflictual philosophy, and fusion of cultures. A bold sense of destiny directs them back to their traditions in a nonnationalist, non-isolationist way. In a world characterized more and more by old-style great-power competition, this approach could seem an oddity. But the new way of doing geopolitics gives hope that international politics is more than a one-solution, zero-sum game. Indonesia and India (and their partnership) are worth studying to understand the diversity of choices in global politics in general and in Asia in particular.
India and Indonesia share some culture and history, but they will have even more in common in the future. They are two of the most culturally and ethnically diverse countries in the world. They share a colonial background. And, most important, both seem to approach the future not from a quantitative growth perspective - the paradigm embraced by both the West and China - but by post-growth, "upward development," in the words of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. As Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who like Modi has won a second mandate, stated the vision of transforming Indonesia's economy into the fifth-largest in the world by 2045, we see that most of his measures are qualitative, and his five priorities for his second term are more centered on human development than on "things." Both Modi and Widodo have put at the forefront a "prime directive" about human capital development.
In Indonesia, 42% of the population
is under the age of 25, while in India the figure is 45%. Based on a philosophy that has been germinating for a couple of decades, the two countries have fixed their ambitions on leveraging the compounding effect of skilling the youth bulge, on overhauling their education systems and labor markets to account for the demographic reality, thus resulting in a knowledge and innovation premium.
Further to that, in Widodo's words, innovation should become a culture, a spiritual position also fully endorsed by Modi. Both leaders have their youth spark street protests recently and, to their credit, they are constructively trying to convert their energy into positive outcomes for their countries. The changes the two countries are seeking to implement cannot be successful without the support of the most active and dynamic part of their society.
Indonesia is now crossing a bridge between a society profoundly shaped by the Suharto era toward a more modern, agile, and open society. India has the challenge of not closing itself to the world and not descending into ethnic- and religious-based nationalism.
Each country has upward of 200 million Muslims, and both countries are on a journey of learning how to integrate the diversity of faith and traditions, and dealing with an accelerating modernity. If Indonesia can learn from India about opening up to the world, India can learn from Indonesia's Pancasila spirit of "unity in diversity."
Widodo, after a bold positioning in 2014 of a "Global Maritime Fulcrum" aimed at transforming the country into a maritime hub, has not even mentioned it this year, triggering many analysts to criticize the apparent lack of global ambition.
In fact, the contrary is true. Amid the specter of great-power competition, it is not a moment to go it alone. Indonesia has made a first and significant step toward showing its commitment to multilateralism with its 2018 Outlook over the Indo-Pacific.
This year, the country committed to strengthening both itself and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and to further developing a mesh of comprehensive economic, security, governance, political, and people-to-people architectures to keep the wider region safe. Much of that has to do with bilateral cooperation with India. But much of its global security and economic arrangements are also based on the joint and concerted actions and positions with India.
Between the two of them and their strategic partnerships, the region is well anchored in a mixture of East, West, and Third Way established and emerging powers, ranging from the US, the European Union and Saudi Arabia, to Japan, Australia, Vietnam and South Korea. Modi was criticized after withdrawing India from RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) negotiations early this month.