ISIS is down but not out
Recent developments in the degradation of Islamic State (ISIS), from the loss of the territory it controlled to the death of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has substantially impacted the capabilities of the group to carry out terrorist attacks globally. However, it remains clear that ISIS continues to exert significant influence through its ideology that is influencing a variety of individuals to sustain the extremist ideology and to consider terrorist attacks.
Two recent reports from international organizations, one from the European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation (Europol) and the other from the United Nations Security Council, provide assessments that while terrorist attacks are diminishing, the ideas and ideology that ISIS inspires continue to pose a threat globally, and in particular, to the security of the EU.
The 2019 EU Terrorism and Situation Trend Report published by Europol provides evidence that the total number of terrorist attacks taking place in the EU have reached a four-year low. The report does indicate an increase in attacks and arrests in relation to terrorism motivated by ethno-nationalist/separatism or right- and left-wing ideologies, and makes clear the threat from jihadist violence continues to be a strong concern.
The Security Council report, part of the ongoing monitoring of ISIS and al-Qaeda, says that while the geographical caliphate is gone, Islamic State is consolidating and seeking to reinvent external capabilities for carrying out attacks around the world.
Both reports indicate a number of areas where the threat from ISIS-inspired ideology remains potent - violence by lone actors, the situation of returning terrorist fighters, and individuals in prisons.
That final point, of individuals in prisons being susceptible to ISIS ideology, will pose a significant issue for the EU to address. There are a number of elements to this, such as the increase in arrests and convictions for terrorism offenses, and the issue of returning fighters from Syria who may be facing jail sentences for their time fighting for ISIS. The Europol report indicates there are growing trends in prisons where ISIS-inspired inmates are maintaining the ideology and influencing others.
This will be an important point of attention going forward. The end of the physical existence of the ISIS caliphate has had a substantial impact on reducing the group's ability to be an active threat. The group no longer has the capability to organize directly or carry out attacks in Europe effectively. Its ability to influence through online propaganda is also diminished, but not completely, as both reports make clear.
The defeat of the caliphate also works to minimize the lure of ISIS, as there is no opportunity for individuals to join something tangible. There remain a number of ISIS-affiliated groups, al-Qaeda-linked groups, and other jihadist terrorist groups around the world, but none have the appeal that the ISIS caliphate in Iraq and Syria held. For Europe, however, there is an increased threat of individuals carrying out attacks on European territory.
None of this can lead to a belief that the overall security threat posed by ISIS and other jihadi-affiliated groups is going away. The ideology and worldview of ISIS continues to attract. This ideology is grounded in the belief that society needs to be organized around a particular interpretation of Islam that glorifies the past, emphasizes the most austere interpretations, and offers no space for discussion or debate.
The ideology is not exclusive to ISIS, as variations have been embraced by a wide range of terrorist groups and their supporters. Equally the core ideas of the ideology - the embrace of a particular interpretation of Islam - are also held by non-violent extremist groups who seek to achieve the objective of a caliphate-like system but through means other than violence. It is important for the EU to maintain cognizance of the core ideas in the ISIS ideology, which have significant influence across a spectrum of supporters.
The influence or embrace of the ideology does not lead to violence in all cases but it does feed into ideas, attitudes and practices that challenge understandings of security in the EU. It has been shown how the embrace of certain Islamist ideologies has divided communities in the EU and have contributed to violent attacks. The Europol and UN reports emphasize that ISIS ideology continues to have resonance across Europe in relation to vulnerable individuals, returnees, and those in prison. The EU report also speaks of the challenges posed by overseas groups that embrace the ISIS ideology and make use of it to sow discord globally and that also influences jihadi affiliates in Europe.
The Europol report shows that the majority of EU states did not report jihadist terrorist attacks in 2018. At the same time, across the member states reporting terrorist crimes, jihadist-inspired terrorism is the most prevalent. In looking at the foiled, failed ad completed attacks in 2018, jihadist terrorism accounted for 24 instances, while ethno-nationalist/separatist constituted 83 of the instances. However, nine member states experienced jihadist terrorism, whereas only three experienced ethnonationalist/separatists attacks.
The same holds for the number of reported court cases dealing with jihadist terrorism, where 15 member states had such trials, while ethno-nationalist/separatists trials took place in only five member states. The report holds that the "vast majority" of verdicts across the EU concerned jihadist terrorism, confirming a trend starting in 2015 where the bulk of security operations and subsequent court cases deal with jihadi-affiliated terrorism.