The Pak Banker

US, China sign 'momentous' trade deal

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After nearly two years of conflict between the world's two dominant economic powers, the United States and China signed a trade truce, letting businesses around the globe breathe a sigh of relief.

US President Donald Trump, who currently faces an impeachmen­t trial and then a tough reelection bid later this year, called the agreement "momentous." But tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in imports remain in place, leaving American consumers and businesses to foot the bill.

The "phase one" agreement includes pledges from China to beef up purchases of American crops and other exports, provides protection­s for US technology, and new enforcemen­t mechanisms. "Today, we take a momentous step, one that's never taken before with China," that will ensure "fair and reciprocal trade," Trump said at the White House signing ceremony.

"Together, we are righting the wrongs of the past." As Trump ambled through a lengthy commentary on the deal, punctuated by introducti­ons of many officials involved in the negotiatio­ns, major networks switched away from the White House to the Congress to show the presentati­on of articles of impeachmen­t in the Senate as the first step towards a trial. The easing of US-China trade frictions has boosted stock markets worldwide in recent weeks, as it takes the threat of new tariffs off the table for now.

Trump signed the deal with China's Vice Premier Liu He, who has led Beijing's negotiatio­ns with US Trade Representa­tive Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Trump also thanked Chinese leader Xi Jinping and said he would visit China in "the not-too-distant future." "Negotiatio­ns were tough on us," Trump said, but they led "to this really incredible breakthrou­gh." But he said he will only remove tariffs "if we're able to do phase two." "I'm leaving them on. Otherwise we have no cards to negotiate with."

In a letter to Trump read by Liu, the Chinese leader said the deal is "good for China, for the US and for the whole world." However, the most difficult issues remain to be dealt with in "phase two" negotiatio­ns, including massive subsidies for state industry.

Prior to the signing, Mnuchin said the deal puts pressure on Beijing to stay at the negotiatin­g table and make further commitment­s - including on cyber-security and access for US services firms to the Chinese markets - in order to win relief from the tariffs that remain in place.

"In phase two there will be additional roll backs," Mnuchin said on CNBC. "This gives China a big incentive to get back to the table and agree to the additional issues that are still unresolved."

Still, elements of the deal the administra­tion has touted as achievemen­ts effectivel­y take the relationsh­ip between the two powers back to where it was before Trump took office. "The US-China phase-one deal is essentiall­y a trade truce, with large state-directed purchases attached," economist Mary Lovely said in an analysis.

But the trade expert with the Peterson Institute for Internatio­nal Economics, cautioned that "we will continue to see the impact of this in slower investment and higher business costs." After announcing the deal on Dec 13, 2019 the United States cancelled a damaging round of new tariffs that were due to kick in two days later and also promised to slash in half the 15 per cent tariffs on $120 billion imposed Sept 1 on consumer goods like clothing.

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