Trade war still poses biggest threat to global economy
The US-China trade war remains the single biggest threat to the global economy, according to a survey of logistics executives revealed at the World Economic Forum summit in Davos, Switzerland. The poll, conducted over the course of a month by logistics company Agility and Transport Intelligence, shows that 28% of professionals believe the tariff dispute between the world’s two largest economies was not over.
This comes despite the US and China agreeing the first phase of a trade deal in December 2019. The trade war has seen tariffs worth approximately $400 billion imposed on goods between the two countries since January 2017.
Relations between East and West dominate the survey, with US-Iran tensions in second place on 19% and a slowdown in the Chinese economy a close third on 17%. An emerging market debt crisis is fourth on 16% and a so-called ‘technology war’ fifth with 11%; Brexit is last on 8%.
The survey is yet another example of China’s importance to the global economy and cross-border trade.
It is the strongest country in the maritime world and is home to seven of the 10 biggest ports in the world. The US- China trade dispute is seen as the biggest economic threat in 2020, despite a new trade deal between the two countries, according to a survey by Kuwait- based logistics company Agility and global research group Transport Intelligence.
Other issues seen as a threat to global economic growth include tensions between the US and Iran, a slowdown in the Chinese economy and a potential emerging market debt crisis.
The results, based on responses from 330 logistics and supply chain professionals, are part of the annual Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index, a look at industry sentiment and a ranking of the world’s 50 leading emerging markets. Twenty- eight per cent of respondents see a US- China trade war as the biggest threat to global growth in 2020, followed by US- Iranian tensions ( 19 per cent) and slowdown in the Chinese economy ( 17 per cent).
A technology war between east and west was seen as the biggest risk by 11 per cent of respondents, but only 8 per cent of those surveyed see Brexit as the largest threat in 2020. Three of the leading threats involve China, which highlights the country's growing importance to the global economy and its ability to affect the fortunes of other countries, the survey findings showed.
Earlier this month, Washington and Beijing signed a “phase one” trade deal in which they agreed to halt imposition of new tariffs and restore the flow of number of goods and commodities that had been cut off by months of friction. Speaking at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday, US president Donald trump said phase two trade talks would start soon.
He also said new trade negotiations would begin between the US and the European Commission, which Mr Trump said had "taken advantage for a long time". "I suspect we are going to be able to make a deal. Otherwise we will have to do something else," Mr Trump said.
"They haven't wanted to negotiate with past presidents but they are going to negotiate with me." Just days after the United States and China signed a deal that de-escalates months of back-and-forth trade retaliation, a survey of logistics executives shows that the supply chain industry continues to see a U.S.-China trade war as the top threat to global growth.
In a poll conducted this month by Agility and Transport Intelligence, logistics professionals were surveyed for their thoughts on the global economy and the leading threats to growth in 2020*. The results are part of the annual Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index, a look at industry sentiment and a ranking of the world’s 50 leading emerging markets.