Stocks dive as Fed & co fail to calm panicky markets
Stock markets were routed and the dollar stumbled on Monday after the Federal Reserve slashed U.S. interest rates in an emergency move and its major peers offered cheap U.S. dollars in a bid to prevent global lending markets seizing up. The drastic maneuvers were aimed at cushioning the economic impact as the breakneck spread of the coronavirus all but shut down more countries, but they had limited success in calming panicky investors.
Europe, which has become the epicenter of the outbreak, saw its main stock markets plunge nearly 8% in brutal opening trade. Earlier, Wall Street futures for the S&P 500 index had hit their down-limit in the first 15 minutes of Asian trading as investors rushed for safety. "The central banks threw the kitchen sink at it yesterday evening yet here we are (with deep falls in stock markets)," said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes. "There is a great sense that central banks are going to get to grips with the issues of getting money flowing ... But the human problem, the macro problem, there is nothing they can do about that."The Fed's emergency 100 basis point rate cut on Sunday was followed on Monday by further policy easing from the Bank of Japan in the form of a pledge to ramp up purchases of exchange-traded funds and other risky assets.
New Zealand's central bank also shocked by cutting rates 75 basis points to 0.25%, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pumped more money into its financial system. South Korea cut rates and Russia rushed together a $4 billion anticrisis fund. MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan tumbled 4% to lows not seen since early 2017, while the Nikkei fell 2% as the BoJ's easing steps failed to reassure markets. Chinese data underscored just how much economic damage the disease has already done to the world's second-largest economy, with official numbers showing the worst drops in activity on record. Industrial output plunged 13.5% and retail sales 20.5%.
In Asia, Shanghai blue chips fell 3% overnight even as China's central bank surprised with a fresh round of liquidity injections into the financial system. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index tumbled 3.4%. By any historical standard, the scale and scope of these actions was extraordinary, said Nathan Sheets, chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income, who helps manage $1.3 trillion in assets. "This is dramatic action and truly does represent a bazooka.
Even so, markets were expecting extraordinary action, so it remains to be seen whether the announcement will meaningfully shift market sentiment. Sheets emphasized investors wanted to see a lot more U.S. fiscal stimulus and evidence the Trump administration was responding vigorously and effectively to the public health challenges posed by the crisis. The performance of the economy and the markets will be mainly determined by the severity and duration of the virus outbreak, he said.
Markets have been severely strained as bankers, companies and individual investors stampede into cash and safe-haven assets while selling profitable positions to raise money to cover losses in savaged equities. To ease the dislocation, the Fed cut interest rates by a full percentage point on Sunday to a target range of 0% to 0.25%, its second cut this month, and promised to expand its balance sheet by at least $700 billion in coming weeks.
Five of its peers also joined up to offer cheap U.S. dollar funding for financial institutions facing stress in credit markets. "It may be a shot in the arm for risk assets and help to address liquidity concerns ... however, it also raises the question of whether the Fed has anything left in the tank should the spread of the virus not be contained," said Kerry Craig, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.