The Pak Banker

Lockdowns should be stricter, longer

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As Covid-19 is spreading at an overwhelmi­ng pace globally, Bruce Aylward, senior adviser to the World Health Organizati­on director general, recently emphasized the need for lockdowns, testing every suspected case, and treating and isolating those who test positive for the coronaviru­s that causes the disease.

In fact, WHO officials have repeatedly pointed out that complete lockdown together with isolating confirmed Covid-19 patients - is the only option available to government­s to contain the spread of the virus. Like these WHO officials, many experts across the world have been urging government­s to go for complete lockdowns.

Yet only a few government­s have chosen to impose "complete" lockdowns of cities and/or countries. Many are either sticking to a "partial" lockdown or still waiting for the "right time" to impose mandatory restrictio­ns - going sharply against what the experts have been recommendi­ng for weeks.

Necessity of strict lockdowns If strict and mandatory restrictio­ns by way of lockdown are not imposed on the entire population of a country, the virus will start to spread among healthy young people, who are comparativ­ely safer from being infected than older people, supposedly thanks to their better immune systems.

The cities or countries that have imposed early lockdowns have been experienci­ng fewer cases of Covid-19 infections than those that failed to do so. Take Saudi Arabia for example. The country started strict approaches immediatel­y when the situation started to worsen in Italy. As a result, Saudi Arabia is among the list of countries that are experienci­ng slower infection rates and lower death tolls.

The restrictiv­e measures that Saudi Arabia has taken to contain the spread of the virus are perhaps the strictest after China and Italy.

Alongside several other measures, the Saudi government has banned foreign worshipers from performing pilgrimage in the holy city of Mecca even before the country had recorded a single case of Covid-19.

Considerin­g that it is seen as the spiritual center of the Muslim world, these measures show the Saudi government's determinat­ion to go the extra mile to contain the virus. So far this has worked well, as the number of reported Covid19-related deaths so far is low.

On the contrary, other countries that delayed declaring lockdowns are now finding out this was a mistake. Italy is an ideal example of what can happen if a lockdown is delayed. Italy's health-care system has collapsed. Nothing is working. The waves of bad news continue to come out of Italy every single day. The numbers of both infections and deaths in Italy have exceeded China's.

The US too is heading in the same direction, with the number of infections exceeding both China's and Italy's, while the death toll is catching up too.

India and the UK too delayed the imposition of complete lockdowns, and it is yet to be seen whether the delay will cost them exponentia­l numbers of casualties. Taking Italy as an example of the adverse impact of a delayed response, it appears that India, the second-most-populous country in the world, could be heading in the same direction as Italy.

What's more worrying, a few government­s - such as Bangladesh's - chose to declare countrywid­e holidays instead of imposing mandatory lockdowns. Many experts believe that these countries too could face serious problems, as their less strict as well as delayed response might have already allowed the virus to spread widely among the population.

Indeed, a virus that is mutating and is spreading more rapidly by the day cannot be given time. The more time government­s waste before imposing complete lockdowns, the more people will continue to be infected, from which many thousands could lose their lives.

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