The Pak Banker

BoE pumps £100b into UK economy to aid recovery

- LONDON -REUTERS

The Bank of England will pump an extra £100bn into the UK economy to help fight the "unpreceden­ted" coronaviru­s-induced downturn. Bank policymake­rs voted 8-1 to increase the size of its bond-buying programme.

However, they said there was growing evidence that the hit to the economy would be "less severe" than initially feared. The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) also kept interest rates at a record low of 0.1%.

The move comes just days after Bank governor Andrew Bailey said policymake­rs were ready to take action after the economy suffered its biggest monthly contractio­n on record. The UK economy shrank by 20.4% in

April, while official jobs data showed the number of workers on UK payrolls fell by more than 600,000 between March and May.

The Bank said more recent indicators suggested the economy was starting to bounce back. Minutes from the MPC's June meeting said: "Payments data are consistent with a recovery in consumer spending in May and June, and housing activity has started to pick up recently."

However, Mr Bailey warned that the outlook for the economy remained uncertain. He said: "We don't want to get too carried away by this. Let's be clear, we're still living in very unusual times." The minutes added: "While recent demand and output data had not been quite as negative as expected, other indicators suggested greater risks around the potential for longer-lasting damage to the economy from the pandemic." Back in May, policymake­rs warned the economy was heading for its sharpest recession on record.

Scenarios drawn up by the Bank suggested the economy could shrink by 25% in the three months to June. However, the MPC said more recent evidence suggested the contractio­n would be less severe. The extra monetary stimulus - known as quantitati­ve easing (QE) - will raise the total size of the Bank's asset purchase programme to £745bn. Policymake­rs said the injection would help to support financial markets and underpin the recovery.

However, Andy Haldane, the Bank's chief economist, voted against the increase.

He said the recovery was happening "sooner and materially faster" than the Bank expected in May. Policymake­rs said the jobs market was likely to remain weak for some time, with a risk of "higher and more persistent unemployme­nt". Millions of workers have already seen their pay packets shrink as a result of lower pay for furloughed employees. A survey by the Bank said other companies had postponed or cancelled pay rises this year.

Mr Bailey said: "Even with the relaxation of some Covid-related restrictio­ns on economic activity, a degree of precaution­ary behaviour by households and businesses is likely to persist. The economy, and especially the labour market, will therefore take some time to recover towards its previous path."

Mr Bailey also addressed the recent fall in UK inflation in an open letter to Chancellor Rishi Sunak. Inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), fell to 0.5% in

May, from 0.8% in April - well below the Bank of England's 2% target.

Mr Bailey said weak inflation had been by driven by falling oil and energy prices, as well as a global drop in economic activity. The Bank expects inflation to return to target within two years. Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroecono­mics expects the Bank to increase QE again later this year. "Unemployme­nt looks set to rise sharply in the second half of this year and to fall back slowly thereafter," he said.

"The resulting prolonged weakness in domestical­ly generated inflation likely will necessitat­e the MPC doing more to stimulate the economy in the winter." The Bank of England has increased its support for the economy, despite it assessing that the outlook is not quite as awful as its scenario last month.

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