Unpredictable export growth during pandemic

The numbers on the trade pattern published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) for July 2020 indicate a significant reversal of the trend in prior months.

Exports surpassed $2 billion, a month-on-month increase of 25.1% and yearon-year growth of 6.1%. On the other hand, imports decreased slightly, month-onmonth and year-on-year. The balance of trade continued its downward trend, receding by 19.9% month-on-month and 7.7% year-on-year.

Pakistan has recovered from the earlier plunge in exports experienced in late March 2020. Exports in

February 2020 were $2.1 billion, the highest level reported for FY20. Interestingly, imports did increase 30% in June 2020 to $3.7 billion over the value reported in May 2020. They maintained this level in July 2020.

On the other hand, India's exports recovered sharply in May 2020 from the sharp fall in April but since then the trajectory has been flatter. Data shows India's exports stood at $19.1b in May 2020, up from $10.4b in April. Exports in July 2020 were $23.6b. Exports had peaked at $27.7b in February 2020.

Imports into India were calculated at $41.1b in January 2020, which decreased to $17.1b in April 2020 and recovered $28.5b in July 2020.

Similarly, according to data extracted from Bangladesh's Export Promotion Bureau, a decline of 16.9% was reported in its total exports from July 2019 to June 2020 over the same period of previous year. Total exports met only 74% of the target. Exports of readymade garments were a major casualty.

Factors that may have contributed to the quick recovery in exports from Pakistan were the easing of the strict lockdown imposed in March 2020 that allowed exporters to restart work and meet their export demand as well as the incentives provided by the government to

to the exporters to recuperate their losses borne during the lockdown.

Although it may be too early to determine the direct impact of each individual measure to counter the losses due to Covid-19, the measures adopted by the government have collectively increased exports and averted an impending economic disaster predicted by several experts in earlier days of the lockdown.

Our World in Data is an excellent repository for the latest data on not only the trend and indicators to measure the spread of Covid-19 across the world but also on the policy responses adopted by countries since the start of the pandemic.