The Pak Banker

Euro up on German IFO, dollar slips on successful US-China phone call

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The euro rose nearly 0.5% on Tuesday on betterthan-expected German economic data, while the U.S. dollar fell after the United States and China both hailed a phone call between their senior trade officials as a success.

German business morale improved more than expected in August as both manufactur­ing and services picked up steam, a survey showed, boosting hopes that Europe's largest economy is set for a strong recovery following the massive coronaviru­s shock.

Kit Juckes, macro strategist at Societe Generale, said Germany's IFO Business Climate index was "just another data point that helps keep the euro at this stretched level," adding that "U.S. confidence and home sales data are unlikely to elicit any response at all."

The euro was last up 0.4% at $1.1831, having risen as high as $1.1842 earlier. The trade-sensitive Australian dollar and

Chinese yuan rose against the U.S. currency, reaffirmin­g investors' faith that even as diplomatic ties between the two countries fray, the trade relationsh­ip can endure.

On the call, which had been originally scheduled for Aug. 15, U.S. Trade Representa­tive Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

The United States said both sides "see progress" and China's commerce ministry called the talks "constructi­ve." The news lifted the Australian dollar 0.2% to $0.7173 and nudged the Chinese yuan firmer to 6.9070.

The greenback also inched lower versus the British pound to stand down 0.4% at $1.3119. The U.S. dollar was only up versus the Japanese yen, last trading at 106.34, 0.3% stronger.

Against a basket of currencies the dollar dipped 0.2% to 93.03. It has steadied this month after a roughly 10% slide from late March through to early August.

Sentiment, and support for riskier currencies over the dollar, was also boosted by a Financial Times report which said that U.S. authoritie­s were considerin­g fasttracki­ng approval for a COVID-19 vaccine being developed by AstraZenec­a and Oxford University.

Stocks moved further into record territory but FX moves were contained with markets already looking ahead to a speech from FED Chairman Jerome Powell later in the week, which could shift the U.S. dollar in either direction.

Investors expect him to strike a dovish tone at the Jackson Hole Symposium and maybe address speculatio­n that the central bank could adopt a more accommodat­ive stance on inflation.

"The potential dovish shift in Fed policy should be well priced in by now which should limit further downside potential for the U.S. dollar," said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG. Low U.S. yields, mirroring expectatio­ns that the Fed is willing to accept inflation overshooti­ng its target, have been weighing on the dollar.

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