Turkey-Israel ties
With Naftali Bennett now prime minister, Israel's foreign-policy direction has been under scrutiny. Eyes are locked on how politically divisive issues like West Bank settlements, peace with the Palestinians and religious-secular relations will be handled by the fragile eight-party coalition.
Is a strategic foreign-policy reorientation possible? Coalition members certainly want this. So far, however, little in the way of the new government's intentions are clear across a range of geographies and interests.
Within such an atmosphere, the question of revitalized ties between Israel and Turkey has unsurprisingly emerged in recent weeks. But don't bet on it becoming reality. Israel has tipped the balance against its isolation in the Eastern Mediterranean in recent years by striking a deal to form the Hellenic Alliance. This aligns Israel with Greece, along with Egypt, Cyprus, Italy, Jordan and Palestine - all members of the Cairo-based East Mediterranean Gas Forum.
The United Arab Emirates signed on in December as an observer, largely as a rebuke to Turkey's ambitions in the region; Ankara was never invited to join either the forum or the alliance.
Keen to steer out of its isolation, Ankara has extended overtures separately to Egypt and the Palestinians in recent months, which included proposals to redraw conflicting maritime borders in the Eastern Mediterranean. Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh agreed in theory to this offer, seeing the outreach as an affirmation of Palestine's status and therefore of its rights.
It wouldn't be the first time Turkey tried to sideline its adversaries through alternative deal-making. In 2019, Ankara signed a maritime agreement with Libya's Tripoli-based Government of National Accord, causing upset among other littoral countries that saw the move as an affront to their own maritime zones.
On Israel's side, more of the same probably is in the cards as it seeks to build on recent gains, for example, with the Abraham Accords. The Accords, brokered by former US president Donald Trump, normalized relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.
Israel's ambassador to Greece, Yossi Amrani, has said that bilateral relations would continue to grow and that a change in government would not deter plans for the EastMed gas pipeline project. Yair Lapid, who serves as Israel's foreign minister until he takes over as prime minister in two years' time, is to visit the UAE on June 29 and 30 to inaugurate the country's embassy in Abu Dhabi.
Yet for all that, and especially because the new government consists of ideologically opposed parties united only in their defiance against Benjamin Netanyahu, there is pressure for some measure of change away from Netanyahu-era policy, or at the very least from that of the past couple of years.
It is for this reason that some have looked to a reengagement with Turkey as low-hanging fruit. Those relations, once the model for strategic cooperation in the Middle East and a lifeline for both countries, have had ups and downs since diplomatic normalization in 2016. Yet ties in one form or another have existed since 1949; thus it isn't impossible to imagine reviving them from current lows.
Restoring relations to ambassadorial level would be a start. The trouble is, Ankara's outreach to Gaza-based Palestinians works against a longtime demand by Israel for Turkey to limit its relations with Hamas.
Indeed, Turkey is keen to revive its standing as a stakeholder on the Palestinian issue. The matter of settlements in the West Bank and the whittling down of the two-state solution rank high on Turkey's list of grievances. It has long prided itself on championing Palestinian rights internationally.