Pakistan in red list over low testing and sequencing rates: UK govt

The British Government has said that it decided to keep Pakistan on the travel ban red list because the true number of COVID-19 cases is likely to be much higher than reported across Pakistan, a leaked letter written by Britain's health minister revealed Sunday.

In the letter, Britain's Health Minister Lord James Nicholas Bethell and the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Innovation from the Department of Health and Social Care explained in detail that Pakistan's testing and sequencing rates are relatively low (1.8 per 1,000 over the last seven days) and lower testing and sequencing mean it is not possible to know the full genomic makeup of their current wave. Therefore, they said that the true number of cases is likely to be much higher than reported.

"The national testing rate varies considerably across regions. For example, in Punjab - Pakistan's most densely populated region - with the highest number of active cases, testing is below Pakistan's average rate and is the second-lowest in the country," Lord Bethell wrote to Yasmin Qureshi MP, the Chair of All Parties Parliamentary Group on Pakistan.

The letter from Lord Bethell was passed to this correspondent by a source. Lord Bethell said that the Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC) produces public health risk assessments to inform ministerial decisions on red, amber and green list countries and territories, and the associated border measures.

"Following the latest assessment, the JBC continues to rate inbound travel from Pakistan as high-risk. The limited sequencing data available from Pakistan would suggest that they are currently experiencing a Delta wave, however, given the limitations in the available data, we could not be reassured that the outbreaks are due to known variants such as Delta, or if a novel cluster(s) of new or high-risk variants are developing and/or driving the epidemiology in Pakistan," he wrote.

Lord Bethell said that there was "no reason other than Pakistan's drive against the pandemic that Pakistan is on the red list."

He said: "The UK Govt is engaging constructively with the Govt of Pakistan to explore ways that we can improve data availability and confidence and consequently our understanding of the current epidemiology within Pakistan. I met with Pakistan's HC to the UK earlier this week to discuss these issues and we have established an expert working group to enable further technical engagement between senior public health officials and Pakistan's health advisors."