PTI likely to be major beneficiary of expats' votes
The ruling PTI will be the major beneficiary of overseas Pakistanis' votes in the next polls as they can swing elections in at least 20 hotly-contested constituencies where almost 0.7 million expats' voters are registered.
According to the details, around 10 million Pakistani nationals residing in 200 countries hold the National Identity Card for Overseas Pakistanis (NICOP), who could get the right to vote in the next general elections. The NICOP is a registration document for the overseas citizens of Pakistan, aged 18 or above.
Six countries host over 80% of the 9,906,175 potential overseas voters that include Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Oman, Canada and the United States, according to official data.
A little over 58% of these potential overseas voters are concentrated in 20 districts that include Lahore, Rawalpindi, Gujrat, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Karachi East, Karachi Central, Dera Ghazi Khan, Jhelum, Attock, Karachi South, Multan, Swabi, Peshawar, Islamabad, Sargodha,
Mandi Bhauddin, Mardan and Swat.
With 709,821 NICOP holders, district Lahore has the highest number of potential overseas voters in Punjab, followed by Rawalpindi with 546,507 and Sialkot with 472,795 potential voters.
In Sindh, Karachi Central has the highest number of voters with 346,960 NICOP holders, followed by Karachi East and South with 221,312 and 169,321 probable voters respectively. In KPK, Swat leads the way with 225,764 while 206,600 likely overseas voters belong to the federal capital Islamabad.
As many as 91 NA seats fall in these 20 districts out of which PTI currently has 52 MNAs, PML-N 30 MNAs, PPP one NA seat and MQM-P has two MNAs. With overseas voters added, PTI could hope to consolidate its position in these districts and might even succeed in gaining a few seats. In the last general elections, PTI got 16,903,702 votes, PML-N 12,934,589 and PPP 6,924,356 votes, with an overall voteshare of 31%, 24% and 13% respectively.
The Geo News' investigation determines that if 35% to 50% of potential overseas voters exercise their right to vote and PTI manages 30% of those, the party would gain between one million to one and a half million votes. If PTI's share in those votes goes up to 50%, it could gain 1.7 to 2.4 million votes, making it the largest beneficiary.
In 2018, PTI won 116 National Assembly seats. Hence with overseas votes, they could end up gaining between 5 to 7 NA seats that could go up to 10 seats if the turnout exceeds 50%. However, there are factors likely to affect these scenarios like the voter turnout, in constituencies where the party's potential overseas voter is concentrated and the assumption that the PTI would be the prime beneficiary of the overseas votes. If 35 to 50% overseas Pakistanis participate in voting and PMLN gets 20% of that chunk, the party could potentially gain between 6 to 10 lac votes, helping it gain 3 to 5 seats.
But in the PML-N's case, a big factor is that they may gain more votes but that doesn't always translate into more seats. In 2018, PML-N won 64 seats, getting 12,934,589, which converted to 202,102 votes per won seat. The number is higher by 60,000 votes, in comparison to PTI and 40,000 to the PPP. This trend shows that
PML-N gets a high number of votes from specific constituencies, increasing its overall share but not enough to win it more seats. This is another reason why the addition of overseas voters is likely to benefit PTI more than the PML-N.
The PPP is unlikely to benefit much from the overseas votes, as recent trends show it does not have much support in Punjab and overseas voters are unlikely to change that scenario. Whereas in Sindh the party already holds a strong position. The MQM-P is another party that could benefit in Karachi, with the presence of 310,979 potential overseas votes.
The findings however suggest that if a large number of overseas voters do not come forward to vote, any significant impact on the outcome of the 2023 general elections is unlikely. If we look at global trends for overseas voting, the turnout usually remains below 10%.
PTI, PMLN and PPP, despite several attempts made by this correspondent, did not provide details about their overseas memberships nor have any of them apparently organised data related to their workers abroad.