Iraq vote underscores divisions over Iran's role

Iraq's Shiite militias that often serve as a proxy for neighboring Iran have taken a beating in Iraq's election, while a Shiite cleric who set himself apart by taking a more nationalistic approach has emerged as Iraq's strongest political figure.

The results underscore growing divisions over Iran's heavy-handed influence in the country, weakening Iran's allies as it seeks to revive its nuclear deal with world powers and engage with its regional rival, Saudi Arabia.

It also heightens tensions among Shiite factions in the country, potentially further complicating Iraq's challenge in balancing its alliances with adversaries Iran and United States. Iran-backed militias rejected the results Tuesday after it became known that their electoral list, known as the Fatah Alliance, saw its parliament seats drop from 48 to between 12 and 14. The Sairoon list of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr picked up to 20 additional seats, consolidating its status as the single largest bloc in the 329member parliament.

A Sunni faction headed by Parliament Speaker Mohamed alHalbousi came in second - a spot gained by the Fatah Alliance in 2018 while independent candidates won around 10 seats. It's the first representation in parliament of candidates linked to the 2019 anti-government protest movement. Hadi al-Ameri, leader of the Fatah Alliance, said the results were "a scam."

Abu Ali al-Askari, a senior leader with Kataib Hezbollah, one of the most hard-line militias loyal to Iran, claimed voting manipulation and said the militias were being targeted. Widespread disillusionment with Iraq's current political class appears to have helped the political coalition of al-Sadr in the elections marked by record low turnout.

The 47-year-old militant-turnedpopulist preacher tapped into widespread resentment of Iran's heavy-handed interference in Iraq through armed militias. Remembered for leading an insurgency against U.S. forces, al-Sadr has in recent years sought to recast himself as a nationalist, railing against corruption and failing services.

Although he enjoys close ties with Iran's political and religious leadership, he is publicly critical of both Iranian and U.S. influence in the country.

In recent years he has criticized the flow of Iranian arms to Shiite militias in Iraq. Al-Sadr commands the devotion of millions of Iraqis, including those who fought in his former Mahdi Army militia from the early days of the U.S. occupation. In 2014, he reorganized his fighters under the name the Peace Brigades - Saraya Salam - and fought against Islamic State militants.

Celebrations erupted Monday evening in Baghdad's Sadr City, an impoverished quarter that is home to about 3 million people and is named after the cleric's father, Ayatollah Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr, who was killed by suspected agents of Saddam Hussein in 1999. While many did not turn out to vote amid a general mood of apathy, al-Sadr's sophisticated political machine mobilized his loyal base of followers to cast their ballots and successfully made use of a new electoral law based on smaller constituencies.

The preliminary results will almost certainly give al-Sadr increased sway over the government. Iranian-backed Shiite militias known collectively as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) gained popularity and outsized influence after playing a key role in defeating IS militants beginning in 2014. The Fatah Alliance made up of PMF candidates came in second place in the 2018 elections, which was seen as an indication of Tehran's growing influence in Iraq.

But the armed groups have been increasingly seen as a threat to the state's authority, and the issue of arms outside state control has become contentious. When tens of thousands of people rose up in late 2019 in Baghdad and the predominantly Shiite south, raging against corruption and Iran's influence, Iraqi militias took part in suppressing them with live ammunition.

Activists accused them of a spate of kidnappings targeting protesters and young activists. On several occasions recently, masked Shiite militiamen armed with machine guns and rocketpropelled grenades drove openly through central Baghdad in an ominous display that underscored the growing threat that rogue militias loyal to Tehran pose for Iraq.

"The parties that claim to represent the PMF were punished by the public because of their stances against the Tishreen movement, " said Nisan alZayer, an independent candidate, referring to the protests by the month they occurred. Al-Zayer ran on the list for the Imtidad Movement, drawn from the protest movement, and got more than 22,000 votes in the southern province of Nasiriyah, a flashpoint in the demonstrations.