Sudan on the brink amid scramble for democracy

Sudanese protesters blowing traditional horns take to the streets in the capital Khartoum during a demonstration demanding the dissolution of the transitional government. If there is such a thing as "too much democracy", it might help us understand the political drama that has unfolded in Sudan since the overthrow of former President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. With so many groups wanting a voice in the country's future, the search for consensus is again proving dangerously elusive.

Bashir was toppled by the military - but only after weeks of mass protests. Back then, a loose coalition of groups The Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) - came to represent the protesters, united by one goal: "Yasgut Bass".

This is the Sudanese version of the Arab Spring slogan: "The people want the downfall of the regime." Crucially, the word "bass", Arabic for "only", underlined the limits of their consensus - they only wanted to bring down the regime led by Bashir for nearly three decades. As the events of the past two years have demonstrated, there was little consensus on how to move forward after that.

A power-sharing deal between the military and the FFC was agreed, launching the Sovereign Council which is set to rule the country for another year - with the aim of holding elections and transitioning to civilian rule. A new political manifesto was launched at a recent conference by the FFC to reconfirm the original goals of the uprising but also calling for greater participation of political parties in the decision-making process of the interim government.

But beyond the display of unity lurked the spectre of growing division between the erstwhile allies. Crucially, it was reported that not all the delegates signed the new document - two blocks formed, both claiming to be the FFC.

Instead of healing divisions, the conference exposed them. Moreover, there are other civilian political groups opposed to the power-sharing agreement. Not to mention the old ruling party - the National Congress - whose cadres are widely believed to remain entrenched in state institutions, foremost among which are the military and the security services.

Reflecting the sense of a country in crisis, Abdalla Hamdok, the civilian prime minister of the interim government overseeing gradual economic reforms, took to the airwaves last Friday. He called for unity and an end to polarisation among the various political parties, which, he said, posed a serious threat to the transition to democracy. The divisions appear to fit a pattern in modern Sudanese history, according to writer and historian Richard Cockett.

In his book Sudan: The Failure and Division of an African State, he identified a fundamental flaw of the country's political class since independence in 1956 that "spirited political competition came at a price - the self-destruction of democracy".In other words, the tendency to fragment and splinter has been the

Achilles heel of Sudan's politics. Time and again failure to compromise and build consensus paved the way for the military to step in, to mount coups under the pretext of rescuing the country from the chaos inflicted upon it by politicians.

Alarmingly, Mr Hamdok, who survived an assassination attempt 19 months ago, noted that the divisions were not just within the civilian camp, but also within the military. Signs of that have been on display over the past few months, leading up to the demonstrations that erupted on Saturday calling on the military to sack the civilian administration and assume responsibility for the transition.

There is a widespread belief that as the date to hand over the chairmanship of the Sovereignty Council to a civilian leader approaches, the military is trying to find a pretext or create new conditions on the ground to justify wriggling out of this commitment.

Hence, the suspicion that its fingers are behind much of the recent turmoil an attempted coup, a blockade of the main port in the east - with cartoonists having a field day suggesting the revolution is about to be stolen. Key figures from the military have repeatedly made their criticism of the civilian politicians public, while maintaining that they are not interested in power themselves only wanting stability and prosperity for Sudan. That is what the military always says.

Foremost among them is the voice of the controversial deputy of the Sovereign Council, Mohamed Hamdan "Hemeti" Dagolo.