Pakistan's food security so precarious
According to many agricultural economists, current food prices, coupled with their high volatility and long-term rising trend, speak loudly about Pakistan's precarious food security situation. Continued financial insecurity and, as a result, dwindling agricultural subsidies, along with the adverse impact of climate change on crop yield, are causing an increasingly uncertain situation for food supplies in the country.
The government is supposed to ensure sustainable food availability in rural and urban markets at stable and affordable prices. However, in developing countries like Pakistan, which has limited financial resources, food security is a complex phenomenon involving several trade-offs.
Therefore, striking a balance between various development goals and protecting the interests of different groups is a daunting challenge. With over 220 million people, Pakistan's population growth rate is 1.9 per cent - far higher than the world's average of 0.9pc (World Bank data).
Unfortunately, expansion in the country's agricultural land could not match the population growth rate, primarily due to scarcity of water a major limiting factor. In 1961, per capita arable land availability was 0.66 hectares, which has now drastically decreased to 0.14 hectares.
In 1961, per capita arable land availability was 0.66 hectares, which has now drastically decreased to 0.14 hectares while the population has increased
As a result, Pakistan has to rely primarily on increasing crop productivity (yield per acre) to feed its ever-increasing population. However, rising prices of agricultural inputs and the growing threat of climate change have made it really difficult to boost yields significantly.
Another viable option is to increase the area of wheat - Pakistan's major staple food - by giving the farmers a higher support price. The arguments in favour include higher import parity prices of wheat due to excessive depreciation of Pak rupee, attaining self-sufficiency in wheat, saving foreign exchange, and enticing farmers to sow wheat who are inclined towards sowing oilseed crops, spring maize (corn), and sugarcane, as they are currently more remunerative.
However, a higher support price to the tune of Rs4,000 per 40kg, as announced by the Government of Sindh, recalls the past rice policy of Indonesia and the Philippines in the 2000s, where high prices were given to rice farmers to alleviate their poverty, whereas most of poor and hungry in these countries were net rice buyers, hence price increase affected them adversely.
Therefore, the government needs to strike a balance between expanding wheat production through higher support prices, alleviating poverty in the country, and allocating funds for safety nets to provide subsidised wheat flour to the poor. In addition, pro-poor economic growth and developing the agriculture sector are some other important objectives that must be taken into account.
Food price volatility (spikes and collapses) has become a critical issue in Pakistan. Even when average prices are affordable to the poor and provide sufficient incentives for farmers, price fluctuations pose risks and create a poverty trap for consumers as well as farmers.
Volatile food prices have detrimental effects on vulnerable households as they frequently exhaust their financial and human resources in