Long-term pivot to East

In China-Arab economic relations, China used to be an investor in Arab countries, not the other way around. The United States has traditionally been the main investment destination for Arab countries.

However, the situation has changed over the past few years, with China emerging as an increasingly attractive investment destination for Arab countries.

Arab countries’ investments in China have reached a level on par with Chinese investments in Arab countries.

It’s worth noting that such a change is not a temporary adjustment, but a long-term strategic pivot driven by both political and economic factors. Before 2020, there was hardly any capital from Arab states in the Chinese market.

In 2021, Arab countries’ new investments in China was a meager $110 million. The figure surged by nearly ninefold to $1.05 billion in 2022 and another 2.3 times to $2.3 billion in 2023, approaching or even exceeding Chinese investments in Arab countries in recent years.

It only takes Arab countries three years to increase their investments in China from the ground up to be on par with Chinese investments in Arab countries.

Currently, Arab countries’ investment in China is still in its infancy, with a very low starting point. The Middle East’s wealth funds spent almost $89 billion on investments in 2022, according to data provider Global SWF. An outsized $51.6 billion of that amount went into Europe and North America and only 1 to 2 percent of it went into Asia, mostly China. Arab countries’ newfound love for investments in China is first and foremost driven by the two sides’ economic complementarity. The ultimate driving force is a common desire to achieve mutually beneficial and win-win outcomes.

Over the past three years, Arab countries’ investments in China have mainly focused on the downstream industries of the traditional energy sector and emerging tech sectors.

They are the “dual engines” driving Arab countries’ economic transformation, and both are indispensable. On the one hand, the traditional energy industry and relevant industries are the starting point of and foundation for Arab countries’ economic reform. Oil revenues have provided a steady flow of funds for their economic reform.

In this regard, the oil demand of China, the world’s largest oil importer, has been rising while Europe and the US’ oil demand has been decreasing amid the global energy transition. China now imports more oil from Saudi Arabia than Europe and North America’s oil imports from Saudi Arabia combined. The future of the oil market is in China. In the age of oil shortage, China tried to secure oil supplies. In 2004, China’s Sinopec signed a cooperation deal with Saudi Aramco and Exxon Mobil to expand a refinery in South China’s Fujian province.

The deal, a typical case of “market in exchange for oil”, was aimed at securing oil supplies from Saudi Arabia.

In an age of oil surplus, like today, when the global oil surplus capacity stands at 5 million barrels a day, Saudi Arabia is sparing no efforts to seize the oil consumption markets.

In 2022, Saudi Aramco signed an agreement with Chinese companies to form a joint venture to develop a fully-integrated refining and petrochemical complex in Panjin, Liaoning province, where it will supply up to 210,000 barrels of crude oil feedstock per day. In March 2023, Saudi Aramco agreed to buy a 10 percent stake in Rongsheng Petrochemical Co, one of China’s refining giants, for $3.6 billion.

As part of the deal, it will supply 480,000 barrels of crude oil per day to the Chinese company. Also in 2023, Saudi Aramco announced to purchase a 10 percent stake in Jiangsu Shenghong Petrochemical Industry Group and a 10 percent stake in

Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Co. At the beginning of 2024, the Saudi Basic Industries Corporation announced an investment decision to develop a $6.4 billion petrochemical complex in collaboration with Fujian Energy Petrochemical Group Co Ltd.

Without any exception, these investments were all made under the premise that Saudi Arabian oil must be purchased. Getting deeply integrated with the Chinese market to seek new markets for Saudi oil is a major strategic move for the country to accomplish the economic reforms stated in the Saudi Vision 2030 strategy. On the other hand, economic diversification and technology-driven growth are the ultimate goals of Arab countries’ economic reform.

The Arabian countries in the Gulf region used to be US allies, with their economies deeply integrated with the US economy and they were highly dependent on the US on security issues. However, over the past decade, the Arabian countries in the Gulf region and the US have had growing conflicts and less and less mutual trust, with the latter withdrawing from the Middle East and showing rapidly declining interest in the region.

In particular, the US imposed sanctions on Russia and froze $300 billion worth of Russian Central Bank assets in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, which was a great shock to oil-producing Arab states. The same could happen to Arab countries in the future, evidently, they realized that it is not wise to put all their eggs in one basket.

According to a poll conducted by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in December, nearly 70 percent of people in the Arab states think that the US has become increasingly unreliable and they should pivot toward China and Russia.

“The figure surged by nearly ninefold to $1.05b in 2022 and another 2.3 times to $2.3b in 2023, approaching or even exceeding Chinese investments in Arab countries in recent years. It only takes Arab countries three years to increase their investments in China from the ground up to be on par with Chinese investments in Arab countries. Currently, Arab countries’ investment in China is still in its infancy, with a very low starting point. The Middle East’s wealth funds spent almost $89b on investments in 2022, according to data provider Global SWF.’’