Swiss initiative for peace in Ukraine
An international conference on the Ukrainian question is scheduled to be held on June 15-16 in the resort of Burgenstock in Switzerland. This country has a tradition of mediating in complicated processes. Therefore, the summit stands a chance of success. The idea is to work out a framework for a comprehensive and lasting peace regarding the situation in Ukraine.
Russia has announced that it will not participate in the meeting because it believes that Switzerland has relinquished its neutrality in the conflict. China previously conducted a similar initiative by issuing a 12-point plan for the solution of the Ukrainian problem, but without entering into specifics. Russia displayed a lukewarm attitude to the Chinese initiative but did not discard it entirely.
China has now said that, if the Burgenstock meeting materializes, it might consider participating in it. This will be the first serious attempt to find a solution to this complicated problem. Swiss President Viola Amherd did not promise the moon but said that it was worth trying.
As the Ukraine crisis has unfolded, some transatlantic community countries have grown skeptical about whether NATO will be able to militarily sustain Kyiv for a prolonged period. Such misgivings have also been voiced in certain quarters in the US, with some having lost their appetite for getting deeply involved in the Ukraine war.
Presidential candidate Donald Trump says that he could bring the Ukrainian crisis to an end within 24 hours. He believes that both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have strengths and weaknesses.
He probably believes that Ukraine might settle for an arrangement that will give Russia the territories that it already occupies. Zelensky will, of course, strongly oppose such a solution, especially in light of the present US administration’s policy of prolonging the war to weaken Russia. There are differences between President Joe Biden’s approach to the Ukrainian crisis and that of Trump.
The present US administration believes that a joint NATO mission may be set up in Ukraine. It will not aim at declaring war on Russia but will try to improve Kyiv’s military capabilities in terms of planning, training and fighting.
Turkiye has intricate relations with both Russia and Ukraine. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan maintains fair relations with Putin. He also maintains good relations with Zelensky. This combination allows Ankara to remain neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although the risks of it getting out of control are also real.
Relations between Turkiye and Ukraine have followed a stable course since the dismemberment of the Soviet Union.
A few weeks before the outbreak of the Ukrainian war in February 2022, Ankara and Kyiv signed a deal to allow Ukrainian factories to manufacture Turkish drones and, as this was a commercial deal, Russia did not oppose it.
This arrangement is still valid and Moscow does not make it a problem with Turkiye. The deal is now bearing fruit. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg referred to this project as an example of how NATO allies were supporting Ukraine and increasing this country’s capacity to manufacture its own weapons. Hopefully, this will not drag Turkiye into a conflict with Russia.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also seems deeply committed to making Ukraine a member of NATO sooner or later. He said that a roadmap had to be drawn up as soon as possible to that effect. The election of a new secretary-general for NATO is another issue that keeps the alliance busy. This time we have been lucky enough to produce several candidates. Stoltenberg, whose term expires on Oct. 1, is the second longest-serving NATO secretary-general after Joseph Luns. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is one of the new candidates.