NEDA sees ‘much better’ Q3 economic growth — Balisacan

ECONOMIC GROWTH should pick up in the third quarter from its rate of expansion seen in the first half although a prolonged dry spell poses the biggest downside risk for the country’s prospects, the government’s chief economic planner said.

“I actually think the third quarter would be much better. Our lone downside risk is El Niño. PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Association) is saying it will be likely as bad as 1997 to 1998. During that time, agriculture dropped by almost one quarter,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said in a chance interview last week.

The Department of Science and Technology, which oversees the PAGASA, said nearly the entire country will feel the brunt of El Niño’s this year and is expected to be the worst since 1997.

The situation, however, is different now compared with nearly two decades ago.

“The preparation and the technology at the time was not as good as this time. We can minimize the impact,” Mr. Balisacan said.

“I’m more concerned about what will happen to those who don’t have sources of income. For example, your field dried up, what will you do? You have to have programs for them,” he added.

Mr. Balisacan said the government could introduce work programs for affected farmers.

“We are looking at various areas, various commodities, various sectors because the effects are different,” Mr. Balisacan said.

The Philippine economy grew 5.3% in the first half , slower than the 6.2% in the first half of 2014.

Last quarter saw gross domestic product picking up to 5.6% as government spending grew after a flat performance a year earlier.