A three-way race
Davao City Mayor Rodrigo R. Duterte issued a categorical statement last week that he is not running for president next year. If we consider his announcement as final, this leaves us with three major candidates for chief executive of the country: Vice-President Jejomar C. Binay under the United Nationalist Alliance; independent Senator Grace S. Poe, who would most likely be adopted as guest candidate of the Nationalist People's Coalition; and former Interior Secretary Manuel A. Roxas II of the ruling Liberal Party.
Shortly after he became vice-president in 2010, Mr. Binay revealed his presidential ambition for 2016. Last July 31, President Benigno S. C. Aquino III anointed Mr. Roxas as his successor. According to the grapevine, Ms. Poe will declare her candidacy on Sept. 16.
How are they perceived by the business community? We are all aware of the issues raised against Mr. Binay being played up in both traditional and social media. The Senate Blue Ribbon Sub- Committee has devoted more than two dozen hearings to these charges over the past year.
Now it's the turn of Mr. Roxas and Ms. Poe to be scrutinized. Some businessmen are worried about uncertainties should either of them emerge as our national leader. They allege that one has a record of servility to influential business factions, while the other appears clueless about economic matters.
When he was Trade Secretary during the administration of former President Joseph E. Estrada, Mr. Roxas supposedly commissioned a study on the pre-need industry funded by the United States Agency for International Aid (USAID). A pre-need company is a corporation registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that offers educational, pension, and memorial plans. It is a homegrown business model unique to Filipinos, which grew to become a P200-billion industry in the early 2000s.
However, the industry collapsed in 2005 and former SEC Chair Perfecto R. Yasay went on record to pinpoint the culprit as the new method of computing pre- need companies' liabilities recommended by the USAID study. He said: “The concept of actuarial reserve liability ( ARL) as a regulatory method for investor protection is unheard of in securities and market regulation.”
Mr. Yasay suspected that the ARL was designed by foreign insurance companies to “weaken the integrity of pre-need plans as a Filipino invention that was winning the competition against foreign products in responding to the basic and urgent needs of our people.” He blamed Mr. Roxas for requesting the USAID to fund the study and referring the findings to then SEC Chair Lilia R. Bautista for what he called “arbitrary implementation.” Another issue that Mr. Roxas needs to address is his perceived lobbying on behalf of local retail giants during his stint as a congressman, when retail trade liberalization was up for legislation. He pushed for the imposition of higher capitalization requirements on new foreign entrants that were incorporated into the final version of the law, deterring foreign players who could make our retail industry more competitive. As a result, existing local retailers grew tremendously by forming joint ventures with foreign brand manufacturers and subsequently enjoying an oligopoly on the Philippine retail sector.
On the other hand, Ms. Poe has not articulated anything that would help the business sector in gauging her economic policies. As far as investors are concerned, she is a blank slate and they find it disconcerting since they are quite averse to any form of ambiguity.
When she topped the senatorial election by a landslide 20 million votes in 2013, Ms. Poe attributed the surprise ranking to the popularity of her adoptive parents, the late National Artist Fernando Poe, Jr. and movie actress Susan Roces. She dismissed claims that her family was out to
Next year's elections will likely be a three-way race among Mr. Binay, Mr. Roxas, and Ms. Poe.