OF WINNING OVER CHINA
ing as it determinedly made clear it wanted no part of it.
And there lies the rub: the point was to get the islands and not create beautiful developments in international law.
That a case should have been filed was not the question; it was the timing and preparation to ensure effectiveness thereof. Both counts definitely left a lot to be desired.
The proceedings were initiated January 2013, with a procedural/ jurisdictional question that needed to be addressed first and was done so October 2015. A decision on the merits could have been expected only around 2016 or 2017, with the new administration left to do the heavy work of managing the expected victory. And so it proved. There were certain smug presumptions surrounding the case’s filing: that China would be shamed into compliance, that history (as was in US v. Nicaragua) would repeat itself, that a Philippine victory would encourage further suits by other claimants, and that the ruling would generate global widespread support for the Philippines. All of which were proven wrong.
There is no question, of course, that the Philippines must stand by the ruling. But jubilantly waving it around is just counterproductive.
Three things must be remembered: First is that international law and policy is in no way a matter of choosing a door among many (whereby picking one bars access to the others). It is a toolbox, the contents of which can be used singly, in varying combinations, or discarded as is necessary.
Second is time. The territories and international law will be there. Foreign policy is a game played in decades, even centuries. Demographics, economic and military strength — all can and will change. What is needed are patience, resolve, consistency, and common sense.
Finally, it is essential we determine with clarity our national interests and — more importantly — our values as a nation. Foreign policy is but an extension of the domestic. From such comes a reasonable starting point with China.
Doing so could accomplish four things: the first is to halt further construction by China; second, is to take up China’s offer of common use of the constructed facilities; third is to implement the ruling (albeit even if on piecemeal basis) by agreeing on areas of shared political and economic interests; and finally, use the time acquired to strengthen Philippine competitiveness.
There is, after all, more than one way to eat dimsum.